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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
8 d4 V! F4 @2 H8 j3 K- p余勋也不例外、
0 [: T* x' M' R其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
% |: r. c" F- U$ l是保经济的重要决策！
1 n" n9 T7 w8 ]- g) F这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
3 v; Y8 x; ^. p6 D低点26700-32400、 7 N7 c+ y4 R* H' z% ?6 a7 I! H$ I% A
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
1 r8 a3 K9 B, U! n# u4 F4 P9 b7 e但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 4 W0 g9 @7 P+ t1 D. x% z
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 # G j0 f% `3 w, A
涨幅就已回撤过半！
7 s: p9 E; R {所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 : U5 X8 g! P9 b$ k& v) d: y
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
; ?) A. q* d7 d0 o其次、 . r: F) X5 V" w, @6 \8 b: C
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
! R: `6 f% {! T$ y; V9 s每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
) |( G! T6 T0 x7 E等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 9 ]# A: J9 u' C
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 ( V6 o2 ^) ?5 N% B, ^7 c4 n+ x- n/ d
但回到币圈、 % i) a$ O) x2 A6 e: j; Q
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 , h z( q$ p6 z1 C2 }; D
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
) \8 ?( b' i7 Q1 q3 _# @而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
) O9 \2 _5 y* T3 Y. n/ {8 s个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 ; E3 }, ]3 f/ r4 q
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 ; i R0 |/ u8 e F- n8 F
对当前的底部、影响有限。
' z f1 d; q; z7 E1 s) B5 a最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 3 Q4 K& B: o: E$ s& g, H o; T
所以27000、即是
; _3 G8 ~* _8 E; g8 ?4 _! K去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
% B0 u+ V1 {9 o% O/ F5 _; A; x同时还是去年放水初期低点、
% l& |# L. w9 Z4 j, V也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
+ l$ s* t8 i$ w由此得出的结论是、
% l) S+ G f$ w) W7 ~" B$ I加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 3 z6 P( y5 A/ V) p) e
点位不会出现太大偏离。
6 s& X$ }" A( I. B综合以上、
/ U* t: _& ]+ W/ [* B; }% L美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
0 I5 a. d! }! l2 q ?在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 / g/ @% h/ E! H: A8 ` x1 u
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
! e3 N1 f& c5 w/ k+ G0 p抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
2 y# J4 o* q9 i U: K) `. B那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
, M7 c8 h1 Z! F$ M" a( k即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 1 M2 T" `( e5 X3 t0 z5 F
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 , I' o/ \4 F5 h O D' g
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 6 J4 p' d; O/ J0 Q
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
) I) R7 { ]. k+ c: g; n% L, o) D逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
# x( M1 V- f) r5 t高空需至31700-32000间布局、 ( Y4 J9 B0 o _2 S9 B
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
0 Y) c0 C9 \, _0 i得不偿失。
* U' B% c( l4 [+ C1 }, B9 `0 m来源：金色财经 |
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