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[虚拟币资讯]
Foresight Ventures市场周报：熊市至暗阶段,机构暴雷清算
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市场观点" ]5 f% r! |5 E* X8 m( c. P+ R
1、宏观流动性
% \8 \8 k3 J2 G2 v. Z/ M- E货币流动性整体紧缩。如市场所料，美联储为遏制高通胀采取了1994年以来最大力度的加息行动，同时强烈承诺降低通胀。不过鲍威尔也表示，单次75个基点的加息幅度过大，不会成为常规政策。过去一年里的8次美联储决议后，6次美股走高，随后继续创新低。BTC仍然与传统市场相关，但是由于下跌周期里机构的爆雷导致流动性危机，进而进入被动清算，成为市场持续超跌的主因。 7 d/ u7 n) x$ j0 w4 ] f; n; \
0 {0 q. s8 ]$ n7 D0 g2、链上指标 9 P6 x) k5 q: ]2 @+ H3 q
对最强手进行清洗。BTC小额地址增持，大额地址减持。可见新入场资金持续增加，但大户和机构在减持。囤币党群体的需求仍然太小，无法吃掉目前的卖方抛压。长期持有的BTC也在持续的降低，而这种降低未必是件坏事，从历史数据来看，长期持有者的投降往往意味着阶段性下跌的结束。
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% w" J6 h" M# ^. k; {, B1 g- z4 xBTC勉强维持在变现价格的历史总成本附近（23430）。BTC在30000-40000的价格范围经历了大量的供应易手，然而在20000-27000之间几乎没有交易量，这可能表现为一个没有支撑的高波动性区域。 + k' ]5 z; N" ?6 Y+ ~$ U+ m
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3、BTC长期市场指标
: V' W' c; Z- w, v* M( H: Z长期趋势指标MVRV-ZScore以市场总成本作为依据，反映市场总体盈利状态。当指标大于6时，是顶部区间；当指标小于2时，是底部区间。当前指标为0.41，已经初步接触到历史大底的绿色区间。绿色区间往往出现在熊市结束之前，并且可以在这种状态下持续一段时间（从2018年的几个月到2015年的1年），直到市场敲定最后的底部。 + Y- m: `& m: l& s: L* x
# ?$ K4 ?9 T: o' I: y# O9 p3 n" j4、BTC短期市场指标
- p' u: a, {1 i期货资金费率：资金费率最近几日保持负费率。费率0.05-0.1%，多头杠杆较多，是市场短期顶部；费率-0.1-0%，空头杠杆较多，是市场短期底部。市场恐慌情绪非常严重，短期底部特征明显。
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期货多空比：2.3，短期市场有继续暴跌可能。多空比数据波动大，参考意义有所削弱。 # H: d7 N; G' D( d$ r
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合约持仓量：本周系统中的投机杠杆下降明显，多头爆仓略多。 & E- `3 ]/ w& \$ g! r# F
1 k& P; }' w* o' t- M. u5、BTC走势分析
& G0 j+ R3 Q! g6 a# d随着BTC从悬崖上掉到多年新低的20000附近，市场正在进入此次熊市周期的最深阶段。当前BTC暂时企稳仅仅是因为抛压和抄底资金的博弈，一旦发现反弹结束或者无力后，这些抄底的筹码就会瞬间变成抛压。因此只能等待机构的连环爆雷和链上清算完成，筹码彻底换手之后，再开启新一轮牛熊周期。
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6、板块涨跌幅Top 100
3 G3 L; |( z8 a R, Q0 P本周BTC大幅下跌26%，市场全线下跌。BTC还是处于吸筹状态，而ETH已经直接回到抛售状态，反映当前抄底ETH的信心已经严重不足。近期ETH的极速下跌，是ETH2.0质押解决协议Lido的stETH流动性危机所致。大笔持仓stETH的美国理财平台Celsius陷入用户信任危机；而以SBF，三箭资本为首的机构也开始抛售清算，此举无疑加剧了市场恐慌。 0 g/ x4 U, F, D( V4 h
. | g+ T. \; o- z2 R& V, y市场数据
7 z! o; a8 x' d( [1、公链总锁仓量情况
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+ G8 b. J% K J! e+ T本周是继LUNA暴雷事件后，再一次单周断崖式下跌，本周TVL下降31.81B，下跌幅度为29.89%，整体TVL水平已下降至21年4月初水平，但是彼时BTC价格为57000美元，整体市场规模仍旧在扩大中。 # l# R, d0 X1 M. z
2、各公链TVL占比情况
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B2 d4 A/ p% R% C本周主流币下跌幅度较大，单ETH链上TVL占比仅出现轻微下降，下降0.83%至64.11%，而BSC链占比已上升至8.25%，其余各链整体变化较小。
! |9 }5 D. d) L" v3、各链协议锁仓量情况
1 G3 v+ ^0 a# e, a# Q: i1）ETH锁仓量情况 ! ?; `: _! C, V1 a; ~4 R: N! |
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2）BSC锁仓量情况
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3）Tron锁仓量情况
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% P; y# H( ^* p% r k( M: P4）Solana锁仓量情况
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3 T4 E; g3 C) O; X' o' X5）Avalanche锁仓量情况
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4 u( K X/ e! S) m$ U6 F/ K6）Polygon锁仓量情况 ) ~8 z4 u) A8 |% G/ W' N5 w7 u
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7）Fantom锁仓量情况 " O$ j, j( F/ s0 m- l4 K( `
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8）本周协议情况总结 3 D. O9 i6 t: y# x! A
协议整体均出现较大幅度下跌，出现轻微增长的协议也是短期TVL波动剧烈所致，各链DEX下跌幅度约为32%上下，而借贷协议下跌幅度达到40%附近，短期借贷协议下降更为严重。
. v: F, M- K O- S7 B+ k! t4、ETH Gas fee历史情况
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& g8 ]1 _8 q+ \2 S当前链上转账费用约为$1.37，Uniswap交易费用约为$4.65，Opensea的交易费用约为$5.1，受行情大跌影响，链上活跃度也再次回到底部区间。 1 @ {, Q5 t* I
5、NFT市场数据变化 $ s$ L3 K7 _/ D
NFT指数市值 3 s) T9 v2 V8 j, G9 |
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NFT市场交易概览
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5 ]$ |- M N: h3 A* W# R1 n" DNFT“聪明的钱”购买排序
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NFT市场进一步下跌，并且受到ETH暴跌影响，从年初计算的美元计价金额已下跌73%；短期内也未出现较好的活跃项目，当前活跃在交易量排行榜前几位的均是老牌头部项目，而以Opensea、X2Y2和Magic Eden为首的三家NFT交易市场交易量已下跌至一周前一半以下的水平。 0 N- I Q1 H% D# T/ c
项目最新融资情况3 m2 d' z+ n/ A, I
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免责声明： Foresight Ventures所有文章均不作为投资建议。投资有风险，请评估个人风险承受能力，审慎做出投资决策。 来源：金色财经 |
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