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闲只在0-5加牌，庄只在0-6加牌而且6只在闲加到6/7时加牌（庄0-2只要闲加牌一律加牌）：
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) D1 `- Z2 |* @: @1 o1、4+5=9，4+6=10=0，多4显然对闲有利。# B- [: @% Z$ M% x# C
3 Y/ g+ \3 s& z. n4 N) a; X B8 y2、各牌多寡（根据算牌得知）对庄胜闲赢或和之影响可以用电脑模拟计算。例如用8副牌若少一支4，开庄/闲/和输率会自原始状况（1.05791%/1.23508%/14.35963%）变化。若少4庄赢机率增加即证实我们根据加牌规则的逻辑分析。# a% V# ^3 C. j. v
, R# q+ b$ _# ^电脑计算结果少某支牌庄闲胜负输率若如下：
7 b: U4 C1 n* m
f; J- L2 W5 t. r. [ U少一张 开闲机率自（1.23508%）0 o8 w9 l. J& O( U8 @9 K0 k
3 Y% b) I6 E) ]5 G9 h0 R4 c$ H
升（降）%
& ~, n8 J3 l% x1 \# y: T+ i0 |0 V( @: J1 F9 a
A （0.0018）
. G/ A/ p1 u7 E2 g V9 b- H7 y& g4 F& Z4 f. L. Z4 `3 s
2 （0.0045）' m E" [, p6 a( W- p* E9 a# x
: n/ `# ]* P' c% I
3 （0.0054）
, f1 W( J5 K7 d4 e8 `' R# N7 ?* Z0 t: s7 Z% c" r
4 （0.0120）3 t) a& {% H+ [3 O. b
- z% E5 h [' h5 0.0084" Y% {* N( o' N3 J* k' E+ J
0 f, | F4 z6 c4 G
6 0.0113
?$ o6 r3 i2 S6 z0 l2 M1 i2 c* n
* S! ^" b( o' A/ V7 0.0082# p3 {/ u5 J+ g" {5 ]
5 l2 z# j" p) E& J. ~# R8 0.0053& a& ~$ O/ Q% B' V, _( c0 E/ v' L
6 x1 m3 }9 d+ R6 B" T' }
9 0.0025% L8 o- `1 k& ]4 l& U8 H: U
+ S. r7 ?0 ?1 s- B1 t Q# g
例如打8副牌，少一张4，下闲的输率自-1.23508%增加0.012%至-1.24708%……即少4对闲不利。- R, Y: i" `) ?4 f \* h6 o
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由于每一组牌都可以用电脑计算出庄闲和机率，玩家只要等到剩牌分配对其有利时即可下注获利。玩家当然不太可能把电脑放在赌桌旁（在线博彩也有可能）每把算牌。21点专家把算牌简化成+1-1在脑中计算。百家乐算牌也可以简化……简化前我们先问一个基本问题：
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( H' ?$ P' P5 m' E21点当退佣高时不算牌即可获利，若赌规好（可以早降）而切牌少（6副切1副不打）算出好牌的机会常高达百分之三十、四十。百家乐算牌获利多少？值不值得？
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/ H6 G! L5 {! S9 P |; }" J假设用8副牌每一张牌的影响如下表：3 f/ [$ B0 M! {' h) n/ o& G
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原始牌庄/收益率为-1.05791%，-1.23508%，-14.35963%' @. T& ]$ d3 j- P; F* C
0 Y8 _' ]/ @- b/ ?/ r5 [, N当足够的牌打出足以克服庄闲和输率时，玩家有机会获利。问题是好牌机会甚少：
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所谓穿透率指一盒牌切多少比例不打，例如用8副穿透率九成指切0.8副不打……在8副牌打7.2副的情形下好牌的机会只有万分之1.77（庄闲和合计）……一万把（3000小时？）只有两把……而21点1万把有2000把！
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( n, Z6 t# h9 B1 @; e3 f一般8副牌很少只留11张不打（98%穿透率）。但即使只留11张不打，好牌机会仍只有1.2%。! U8 {0 N0 d% x5 K
% L7 n/ k. A D+ M9 B如果用最精确的方法算牌也只“一年”找得到两次下注机会，百家乐算牌的用处显然太小。! Q5 Z( m. U, _
- u; D; X0 x- w) n& r不过如果你（因为喜欢？）非玩百家乐不可或可以拿到很高的退佣，算牌仍是玩百家乐的最佳策略。8 o8 j" P# y2 I* x/ g
9 C3 U8 W& s" _; }当然你不可能用上述的最佳洗牌法。博智在“打败庄家”一书中提供简化的百家乐算牌法。由于不同点牌对庄闲和影响不同（如“4”对闲的影响是“3”的两倍），不同点数标数不同：
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点数 标数: A# p& k% S' a. ^
/ u7 y0 n6 D* I, ]8 d+ K! b! M
A +1/ u0 j6 z+ |3 {# z- n) p
+ ?6 A3 A- M- s7 \
2 +1
4 }4 n' }) u( A! g( d0 r) J- l& V. u. z" H- v# `% e6 ]! F- Y- I
3 +2" `. _- Y2 k4 p! J, e
/ p+ w8 J* H7 ^- O) S; W6 t4 +3; U% W! N8 F" l
7 s( Y- g& J" @6 T) P. R) E
5 -20 _0 h; H9 O1 J9 B [7 E7 w
( q5 D% e1 p& a9 H2 J
6 -2
" S# Z# f3 g$ T) x3 o; _) c
4 K4 ]1 A* R6 M/ E# r E7 -2
7 T+ }( i, |* t& F3 S" d! k
9 I- a+ `4 k* E1 R0 a8 -1
& Z' P5 a; @& m. q2 T: X/ ^0 e9 r" r: K T7 v! d$ t( ?
9 02 d6 K# L! G, u6 i0 o4 E
6 c& S5 j- Y$ T! Q) E
0 0/ _$ i" \& Y% [
+ r- u4 k3 |$ p _
自0起算，看到A/2加1，“3”加2，“4”加3，5/6/7减2，“8”减1，9/0当没看到，算到正值表示小牌出得多，庄胜算提高。/ Q8 b% W- \: v2 N* C y/ e
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算出的数称为流水数。流水数除以剩下的副数称为真数。不同真数时庄闲和的收益率如下表（%）：
. V' n5 X) p: f+ u$ q7 M# F4 p9 u4 Z( v
注意真数“0”时为标准牌下的收益率，下庄-1.058%，下闲-1.235%下和-14.36%。-16时下闲输率-0.586%，+16下庄输率-0.51%。如果你拿到1.2%洗码退佣（依下注额为0.6%），±16时可以下注获利。若你拿不到退佣，得等-27时下闲（+0.022%）或+29时下庄（+0.02%）……大约玩半年会碰到一次。
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3、结论! p; d6 u6 _/ w# q+ g; }: M( p8 ^
$ b1 v [! t- ~2 s; c7 _& P" V- T百家乐的钞票不比21点美丽。鱼与熊掌不可得兼。想赢选好赢的，想玩选好玩的。扛了想赢的大旗玩好玩不好赢的赌戏，南辕北辙，不输也难。
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