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[打法交流] 对百家乐玩家的忠告(转载)
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1#
闲只在0-5加牌,庄只在0-6加牌而且6只在闲加到6/7时加牌(庄0-2只要闲加牌一律加牌):8 a* ?8 S! X1 k# O* z- A
7 M$ ]/ b0 n9 E% w
1、4+5=9,4+6=10=0,多4显然对闲有利。1 I8 u( h  F& q2 d9 L

3 b; o; F& i% W/ L+ \4 a4 ^2、各牌多寡(根据算牌得知)对庄胜闲赢或和之影响可以用电脑模拟计算。例如用8副牌若少一支4,开庄/闲/和输率会自原始状况(1.05791%/1.23508%/14.35963%)变化。若少4庄赢机率增加即证实我们根据加牌规则的逻辑分析。, u$ O7 q$ Z' V- {' E

, _. W) p9 w' {) B  K电脑计算结果少某支牌庄闲胜负输率若如下:
' K- H' i; D0 ?$ I- \
$ X4 |! B( z: S0 V& \( o少一张 开闲机率自(1.23508%)3 o7 ~. N1 w( Y1 w# `5 M
$ Z+ Z! p& E- P2 ?
升(降)%/ ~& C2 \6 l' W+ _  m
- ~( f. ^, t$ T$ S( I9 m- }
A (0.0018)! B# d. s6 m& l  C/ k, y
- O0 c" x% K- ?. B3 U
2 (0.0045)
5 d  u2 i+ p. C+ {: I. v1 ]! C. x4 \1 T/ e2 I/ a+ ?
3 (0.0054)& Y# [1 G1 A: i# z7 {0 z

; C6 F/ _& G: E6 f5 \* x# X4 (0.0120)
- L+ h7 O" {7 y4 u+ x7 X2 @% X5 t
. n0 M. |2 w5 q: t' t4 ~* H1 B5 0.0084
; U0 S* n9 Y' B
& @* K5 c: K6 r6 S6 F/ u: |6 0.0113
9 X3 C+ i) }3 z) [( p7 v$ @$ A0 m$ v) u; ~, F) F  j
7 0.0082
7 r. d! {$ j9 I3 e
) `/ a. G' H% ~" U. _3 L0 t8 0.0053
* c: R8 o* S3 ~) [& q1 u7 d1 B0 T8 ^4 J9 ~
9 0.0025
( p0 l$ f+ o; N5 |6 F6 k/ w+ p0 ]0 d- `/ M8 i
例如打8副牌,少一张4,下闲的输率自-1.23508%增加0.012%至-1.24708%……即少4对闲不利。( y& P2 D( O6 a7 Z; x4 H

# E1 o2 @6 [8 _由于每一组牌都可以用电脑计算出庄闲和机率,玩家只要等到剩牌分配对其有利时即可下注获利。玩家当然不太可能把电脑放在赌桌旁(在线博彩也有可能)每把算牌。21点专家把算牌简化成+1-1在脑中计算。百家乐算牌也可以简化……简化前我们先问一个基本问题:
, I) X8 y$ j/ D5 L7 R- S' ^% n5 G5 D/ z! M, S6 {$ N4 t
21点当退佣高时不算牌即可获利,若赌规好(可以早降)而切牌少(6副切1副不打)算出好牌的机会常高达百分之三十、四十。百家乐算牌获利多少?值不值得?# D8 ]/ u+ M& D' f9 w5 X/ m

) N8 R4 g9 `( X$ \) U1 |( R假设用8副牌每一张牌的影响如下表:4 f! g7 m0 N  k& l$ S# D
. @6 s  l0 K) g: [4 _5 }$ {
原始牌庄/收益率为-1.05791%,-1.23508%,-14.35963%
* n+ h& H4 p+ V
! n% n- v; e+ c0 o9 s当足够的牌打出足以克服庄闲和输率时,玩家有机会获利。问题是好牌机会甚少:5 [# P' a- M% f9 e! X

4 R. m# b7 d5 A4 k所谓穿透率指一盒牌切多少比例不打,例如用8副穿透率九成指切0.8副不打……在8副牌打7.2副的情形下好牌的机会只有万分之1.77(庄闲和合计)……一万把(3000小时?)只有两把……而21点1万把有2000把!* c: d/ R4 J% q& G: z( [

" q% G5 @- z% o* I8 v7 M一般8副牌很少只留11张不打(98%穿透率)。但即使只留11张不打,好牌机会仍只有1.2%。
; t4 c7 z+ T" f7 O( l  X6 S# L  w/ j$ f% Z, |' p# n! m' ^3 t
如果用最精确的方法算牌也只“一年”找得到两次下注机会,百家乐算牌的用处显然太小。
/ e, ^1 i+ T6 ]
, ^4 L0 b# ^$ c  a6 T8 H& m不过如果你(因为喜欢?)非玩百家乐不可或可以拿到很高的退佣,算牌仍是玩百家乐的最佳策略。5 A6 P: S. t4 P* E( s- |
1 }' e, Y; a6 K) Q! ~: n
当然你不可能用上述的最佳洗牌法。博智在“打败庄家”一书中提供简化的百家乐算牌法。由于不同点牌对庄闲和影响不同(如“4”对闲的影响是“3”的两倍),不同点数标数不同:
. \. y! y: N. _
  f& h7 F8 c$ Y3 a& F点数 标数
, z& I7 ]9 X7 |9 i: [* e/ n0 V9 |6 L
A +1
$ e% B6 k& }: _! s: T
7 n6 \% L; S$ U' |2 +1/ a/ |& x4 r0 m- C+ o

' x  ^& W0 B) o4 x1 k/ G( I4 ], A3 +2
% K; i/ \- z7 A' |% x& k) ]: V& D2 n1 A. A+ R1 v2 i3 b+ ?' V" s, _
4 +3
3 u& A6 F( G" l$ f
: t8 H) F; F  F9 ?  y" c5 -28 v; |6 ]6 j0 i) `/ L7 t( I1 H

- M+ W# O+ t+ }$ t  t4 H" m6 -2: l4 u  z; B; e1 a

( j8 @! V, m/ a7 F% i, y7 -2
& b- v, T% p9 g  C2 Z; O4 ]" i8 {
8 -1
) l: `* U, M/ g  R7 y% M5 z
- @. Y1 B+ {( b5 O% M+ r9 0! v( h8 ~' W- y! c) W/ e

  t9 D- c5 s2 S6 d( F; z' a# X+ z0 0% ]0 x! Q& H0 M; I/ R# T4 E

! k9 N; G8 a9 ^: }8 W自0起算,看到A/2加1,“3”加2,“4”加3,5/6/7减2,“8”减1,9/0当没看到,算到正值表示小牌出得多,庄胜算提高。$ y. c/ \( y7 e9 y7 \  P4 n* g. f1 Q

+ Z( c9 |6 k+ C5 Y算出的数称为流水数。流水数除以剩下的副数称为真数。不同真数时庄闲和的收益率如下表(%):
; S3 k8 M( v9 f' S  ?9 R% E$ _. o" ~
注意真数“0”时为标准牌下的收益率,下庄-1.058%,下闲-1.235%下和-14.36%。-16时下闲输率-0.586%,+16下庄输率-0.51%。如果你拿到1.2%洗码退佣(依下注额为0.6%),±16时可以下注获利。若你拿不到退佣,得等-27时下闲(+0.022%)或+29时下庄(+0.02%)……大约玩半年会碰到一次。
5 M6 F4 @% P, O7 d9 Q% V7 z
0 V8 F. h7 A; V+ z2 ^/ n+ q; ~3、结论8 G, U# S* Z/ x7 L. i4 S) r

. S4 T0 K/ ?+ f百家乐的钞票不比21点美丽。鱼与熊掌不可得兼。想赢选好赢的,想玩选好玩的。扛了想赢的大旗玩好玩不好赢的赌戏,南辕北辙,不输也难。6 [) o3 t8 S- _
2 i. m4 g4 n5 {% d/ o" r

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参与人数 1贡献值 +3 收起 理由
avatar 天策-萌二姐 + 3 百家乐的打法真的很多

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avatar
这个的话也是要了解一下了
avatar
3#
玩百家乐的朋友,认真看看了
avatar
你研究的非常透彻也是很科学
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
这些忠告都是没有用的东西了啊
avatar
6#
不玩百家乐就是最好的忠告
avatar
7#
你还是先去告诉一下你自己的吧
avatar
8#
认真看看了
avatar
9#
我已经不玩百家乐好多年了
avatar
不知这个是不是真的管用的了
avatar
11#
感谢楼主的忠告,还是非常值得借鉴。
avatar
12#
忠告是可以去看看了解下啦 。
avatar
还是方法的,楼主的强项了
avatar
那百家乐这个东西真的非常难搞
avatar
这个还是需要能够多多的学习一下的。
avatar
16#
这个有点难度不好理解得了
avatar
17#
转载的也是很不错的东西的哦。
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