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小分3种情况:
( e. Z+ M' n8 V
' V) |' z2 K5 n/ Y) x8 `1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
5 n9 G! P& w5 q" d( t" n8 U- @; Z. Z! g" R& Y
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。) }) h G* d" u5 z, S8 G- w
. C3 [% Q, n0 f- \! t+ D% v
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。) W% I; ^. w z1 [
& `9 Z r; a2 `2 K- a D
2张牌8或9点的情况有:
; _8 A* V" U1 H) l- `5 o% B- k( Z) s: k c) Q9 t: Q
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10; P7 t" s- N0 m( {& K5 a
' t9 L3 N/ e7 H8 P1 W1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415% A- o R9 D6 F) ~
' ^2 w3 _9 @6 g& |1 Q6 g' f
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/4155 J! v4 }6 o# d' @& I' U' J
2 f9 q0 D- @: d! i% I
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415! U5 S2 W% u: G; }' h
6 x) Y0 T! ?) q- G/ \" ]6 I. v, g3 U由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
4 I: u( R2 {% E( v/ Q6 o
( m4 A# F3 u7 ]% W3 D: T' H2 J通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。; k* Z# B2 X) t# |" o: l: T
, Y& y; L# F# J4 D1 T7 R那么我们可以得出# h# \7 o. R' k3 p& c
% a8 q1 q. K' H5 ~+ {; h1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662* d' J8 L g$ c
9 z3 G0 A; N& N/ S" u$ d) {
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 + k% M( d6 K1 |, P8 U- N' m
8 u) X( a- l, I3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491) C3 U0 u/ U T, q2 o! s# Q; z
7 C6 r3 l2 x% {# ^
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
( D+ X+ N# t6 n7 l
: s% m) X9 B1 Y7 L' g% w百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677& X6 S+ @' l2 |6 w& m" @
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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