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[虚拟币交流]
FED主席警告：2023至少再升息2次！市场期待降息不切实际（转载）
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联准会主席Jerome Hayden Powell在美东时间周四早上亲赴参议院银行委员会听证会重申FED立场，Powell表
: D7 V6 e2 m9 c( d示，虽然在六月的FOMC会议没有升息，但这绝并不是停止升息的讯号，仅仅只是放缓升息脚步，不代表不会继
5 W4 a4 B' x: G: y7 N续升息。
. D3 u7 d, j+ R/ d0 bPowell认为，打击通膨刻非常坚定的原因是美国的工人阶级正在饱受催残，因此将通货膨胀率坚定地守在2%这个
" F6 O, i m4 G$ { ^节点上是至关重要的，而且Powell也强调联准会成员都相信我们正在接近(这个目标)，但他承认，加息仍要再往上
6 b4 B! O- U1 b8 B& J走一些。& T! Y/ }% h* M$ G7 L
“一开始我们动作很快，后来就慢慢放慢了，这只是现况的延续…我们很好的预测，如果经济按预期运行将会发生
) H$ m& ^( r/ c/ k" y: S4 }什么。”
- h5 G, c; e3 R' k" R重申再升息两次、市场过度乐观
2 ?- t: N8 V- @) |( v% }在最新的升息点阵图中，FOMC对于2023年的最终利率预期值中位数是5.6%，这意味着若每次升息25个基点
( {1 Z! j6 c6 X2 n(0.25)，当前的利率来说仍需要至少再升息两次以上(当前的利率区间为5%~5.25%)。$ y8 }* T3 C9 T* |0 d) X+ x
Powell在听证会也回答了是否会在2024年以前出现降息，而他回应不可能很快发生，Powell认为市场过早关注于, u8 g( ]4 @' [% l- {7 d! D
降息的可能，这太过乐观了：对于降息我们的判断，就是看我们是否对通货膨胀回归到2%的目标有信心，也需要, v6 v# r3 W E" F4 h+ Z( d! X0 y
观察经济发展如何，就目前的状况来说，通膨的持续程度超过许多联准会成员的预期。
3 v8 i+ |' R9 Y% X B对银行爆雷回应
+ V. T! e0 X! ]! _. G6 {5 t除了升息议题以外，对银行相关的监管也是许多参议员询问Powell的核心攻防话题，Powell回应近期要求提高资
0 c+ C, T- V' @: y4 {* E本适足率的要求，是针对资产规模超过1000亿美元的超大型银行，对一般小型银行、社区银行没有影响。而至于& A5 K P; H Y2 X1 _- M# N- ]
硅谷银行的破产监管责任，Powell也承认当前的美国金融与FED系统有执法上的问题，需进一步地的改革：对公; C+ A, ]/ g& a# y) E- v) Y
务员来说，如果有渎职、违反规定的话，他们就会被解雇，但(硅谷银行)这次没有发生类似的事情，而旧金山联储% K, P# Q- P; T( [ b
当时也发现了问题，提醒了(硅谷银行)银行管理层，但后续的执法力度不够，这也是联准会体系的问题。0 i- d% Y/ G) I; w9 G+ M7 h
7 b# d: `# P4 F B9 L' q4 I
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