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[虚拟币交流]
FED主席警告：2023至少再升息2次！市场期待降息不切实际（转载）
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联准会主席Jerome Hayden Powell在美东时间周四早上亲赴参议院银行委员会听证会重申FED立场，Powell表/ p/ X5 H5 t: E) B$ X, u
示，虽然在六月的FOMC会议没有升息，但这绝并不是停止升息的讯号，仅仅只是放缓升息脚步，不代表不会继
) I) M9 _5 I8 y: ~6 R, f2 z续升息。
, e2 H& Y. a* @. z qPowell认为，打击通膨刻非常坚定的原因是美国的工人阶级正在饱受催残，因此将通货膨胀率坚定地守在2%这个
' H! s, h& H0 _6 K5 e& x节点上是至关重要的，而且Powell也强调联准会成员都相信我们正在接近(这个目标)，但他承认，加息仍要再往上- A1 |* A0 Z; H& {: D5 ~3 N/ u; \2 F
走一些。
/ c$ H5 y" {3 u3 l5 O“一开始我们动作很快，后来就慢慢放慢了，这只是现况的延续…我们很好的预测，如果经济按预期运行将会发生
5 b( N( m% |9 r, b2 F0 Z什么。”
) O) }( b3 y; M9 ?' r" c- s4 @重申再升息两次、市场过度乐观
8 \$ y' V2 ~: z8 i在最新的升息点阵图中，FOMC对于2023年的最终利率预期值中位数是5.6%，这意味着若每次升息25个基点5 a* d' J6 N: X
(0.25)，当前的利率来说仍需要至少再升息两次以上(当前的利率区间为5%~5.25%)。4 J1 F7 s( ^& n( e
Powell在听证会也回答了是否会在2024年以前出现降息，而他回应不可能很快发生，Powell认为市场过早关注于4 _2 l/ N2 }7 l; X0 G- o+ E n
降息的可能，这太过乐观了：对于降息我们的判断，就是看我们是否对通货膨胀回归到2%的目标有信心，也需要
7 `$ I4 r5 _' T8 p+ w观察经济发展如何，就目前的状况来说，通膨的持续程度超过许多联准会成员的预期。1 \& `- x; n' T6 H2 W: J
对银行爆雷回应& {3 k, }& W$ K# U" \ {( ?
除了升息议题以外，对银行相关的监管也是许多参议员询问Powell的核心攻防话题，Powell回应近期要求提高资
# A/ I6 {6 S7 V% D# w4 f2 o3 k本适足率的要求，是针对资产规模超过1000亿美元的超大型银行，对一般小型银行、社区银行没有影响。而至于
( h j$ O/ r5 }# h6 A- L4 f# l; i硅谷银行的破产监管责任，Powell也承认当前的美国金融与FED系统有执法上的问题，需进一步地的改革：对公! |8 e! `" C7 n, x M, B
务员来说，如果有渎职、违反规定的话，他们就会被解雇，但(硅谷银行)这次没有发生类似的事情，而旧金山联储
1 |; s$ V- \% H, b& r/ ?, F当时也发现了问题，提醒了(硅谷银行)银行管理层，但后续的执法力度不够，这也是联准会体系的问题。8 v' U/ @5 W8 ]
3 }$ _- _3 n ~& I
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