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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人' E9 J, R+ o. r. Q$ q
& J$ J- ~+ m7 t$ B
认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，; U% H& L8 `+ `: q
2 N5 [- K% W L
而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
9 F E( {+ H. Q' _
7 d3 c% @$ P" z/ K O. h4 G的千禧一代。
% J A4 B+ {5 ?从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB: ^' O! B& W$ a6 L) ?& {9 n! m4 Y* |
V0 M* r7 g. x, o
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“, G$ f" y! @1 w! G5 i/ Z9 ^% |# o
8 X6 V% C: G% e# w: k3 r
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加8 s v% G8 F: ^6 L5 T9 m. I
/ M( a G1 @3 c- u1 Y o! L5 `+ o+ D密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据! V% S9 c6 W f& @; Y6 v: h
3 k$ E( M+ @$ J, |
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成, V, g1 x1 x: F5 ^
/ o9 u. G! J2 Z# s的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》! S+ V$ L% d; W7 l; i, c# m
" y* A; @2 L6 D/ `3 w
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
: L6 O7 F3 T- H& }3 e. ]( x/ p, w1 N
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为3 p6 f) ?$ G0 i- U' V; V
! M7 p. |/ B$ c. q$ z- P' i" hETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
% H0 [) N- J. m( ~: G( }* R# T$ y4 K& \) F$ C: ~7 b
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降3 }6 [2 F5 e! Q8 w) M& g
1 `: V( c( l0 `1 v M息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。8 E) R/ G# F$ y
* _5 p1 c" U! J2 h" T$ h; @与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
0 ^: y- X0 N( W* b. H# ^/ x) O- \
) B8 ^' s b; o3 Z% I* A% b& {0 l$ D* E世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富8 |8 w- S2 ^" Q
5 |0 F& H& p f1 T* p8 I4 s0 E; |传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不1 z: B! [; A) w( X
* G! [( R$ s, C2 U到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一: x C5 P4 B+ Y# K* V
5 n- A# f; {8 U4 w# S' N4 E代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
( \/ p, p/ \1 X$ @3 Q( d" I3 [* E
) y) F( |2 U( o/ e" r本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
9 v$ k4 r% Q2 @. [9 l/ |
2 E& b5 _/ w5 z/ M7 I系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货2 d$ h3 R8 N, ^7 _6 j: o
9 x/ h! R; @$ e5 T* @5 s
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致, ?5 G0 @& S2 _+ M
4 ?4 W2 J9 B0 `3 I3 @8 V未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
# H6 p) p2 V: j
% Y; Z- n. Y; f/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。$ O5 @( ]2 E/ g1 `
5 @5 E- S3 M. U# M8 e6 N5 |/ i) V- H
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