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) x6 A# _! D' J, }5 w5 o3 S
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
) y6 ~2 l" o) L5 M/ xDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，& A; H. `7 C5 f, S2 N: J- k( T0 l% S
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
+ {, `# s' [3 a5 p. B; L一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
3 O9 M, h Q$ c4 n: }4 y& NBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。, {9 ]: U+ Z6 m/ b& [( q) c' J3 o
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
5 F+ S% G1 ?/ z& L/ P2024年4月第四次减半
) r1 w/ I5 _8 a' o, |3 m; c1 }: p机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
8 l$ Z6 d2 G- S- N9 {+ |可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
- g, u( X. Y. p) b6 C+ @0 Y针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
& a7 `; p, [( i) [' X二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
% U* z% g! ~" |friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
' d* U$ m( [2 M7 c/ w5 jPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
( _9 K, B5 L f3 T诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。1 L+ u2 m9 ]$ Q& V
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁, v# S2 d: J" c7 I
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
|9 [! o4 X0 m+ @; {9 Q& q! Z; R金融(TradFi)产品。
0 d' t9 d8 G* ~9 W G% N如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
6 k! r R, U8 f0 [) \链桥」的项目。
4 ^1 s3 ~/ ^$ }/ F四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
1 m, Q& f( C2 f- B: i! K. B; C7 b模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
3 n: k. A0 G* q7 i: h+ q. q等。
4 s r% `7 s4 v- N8 b% g) @Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用# y: g0 O: a& s2 ?; o& d
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
$ T3 |" ^2 u% j" R m! C# z1 y1 n五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
' l3 a; h+ j, Z5 ]4 _! [7 M6 LPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
/ G+ e, b9 U6 u0 V数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。7 i. p2 z* g9 W2 D
Pantera点名了几个项目：
; ` _* d G0 b- T' kHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
; `5 w( n S( P4 M- IBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台) K# ?1 `( p% s; h8 j& H- w: v/ z9 T
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品' l$ F+ M& C' d! f
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划1 J4 _% W, Q; W J$ ~' _" W9 w
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游8 K3 b! X F0 ~, F5 O/ m/ o
六、小型公链需专注特定应用2 h0 c% z* m: z; u
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚& y! F& V! S2 E; w5 n1 Y
至能直接与L2竞争。/ Q% \0 [* h* k+ h& `; ?- \
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
6 S. c8 _6 q% cPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
- E: G' G; j, A/ h* v3 m1 L成为「应用链」。
$ }, m/ J1 K: U; v- b" A事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。% M2 n) E- @7 w
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