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[lastpost] => 2818458 星桥资本:BTC估值压缩 下行风险可控（转） 1774997280 whywhy
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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$ I. f4 y0 j; @( B0 Z( w 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。7 c( c" h1 E( `
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" x8 T$ A3 U6 t6 Y& x+ F! t 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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4 O. e2 b) I/ y- d Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。" f" y& h) x. y3 l
$ g3 Z9 q. u" p" Z7 f+ Y 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。! {' F9 s: I* {% u$ J: j7 l
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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8 o+ l8 ?3 z; } o4 h 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，/ T: F S1 m+ T$ x
( J+ D9 L8 j3 l6 Q价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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3 d5 I/ q6 f. p/ s$ F+ V; b% G “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”- H3 w( T/ `6 o1 N3 z/ ?
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。1 `8 n! O7 v- g2 n2 v& @
# @( E& ~! a& | “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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' R' }$ M; _+ ?$ } s 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。+ i* _* B k* `+ V1 Q+ \
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势3 y" s# }: {! {+ B9 w
4 o# H! _- J5 L% Z1 h 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。7 c" t! h* e& m$ ~
! h) V/ B; T: d$ Y, X6 @! a 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。- f( f7 ?% N2 Z/ W) N. R) e
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8 \$ F7 I( r6 C. ?: x Y 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，
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' ]# V- d& [* ]3 a市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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