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[lastpost] => 2765395 当稳定币开始造链，以太坊还有机会吗？（转） 1757780538 caoch
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。/ t0 q+ R b9 C& s! H6 f
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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& A8 T! J) t4 k衰退，我担心的是金融危机。” z' G& w q+ i' I
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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" d2 k8 z3 X1 Z/ ^+ z' y, x融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。3 T) S$ s7 ?9 n6 b' s! O) c
% W' w* o$ C% x2 e* M4 c过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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! T. B+ L5 `) s4 `2 Q然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更8 n" L8 }9 B' ~6 D( s/ m
( {* @! e2 J3 d# {( M; R8 {+ H( N是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。, o* C& `, r' M+ h: @% [
; S: |/ K' D R历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史" O) o, h/ }+ V \) i
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。7 B" p2 a3 e) B$ |8 R7 V" e
% F) C, G3 p2 [& C+ m% c周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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7 f3 S5 D& G0 f0 h收益率冲高回落。) V7 [) |& R- c$ o0 m9 J
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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, G* m" \7 l% p9 x, [周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。4 y6 _/ @4 T, W
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，# L2 d5 q1 X) A, u9 b4 ^$ I
8 O+ b0 x* L4 R" e6 _8 K是的，这正是我们所看到的。"/ U4 I5 ^1 P k5 ~
# X. ~$ I% H/ A9 n根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去+ Q* D/ x$ g* s% D/ W/ i
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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8 ?% B) F3 c& ^1 v8 ~1 F PRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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