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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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5 \3 x2 `# w7 @" e  m0 J( E5 f西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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4 F$ ~8 y% C7 X" [: ]" A2 @以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?3 V7 Y  a: r" n) O% Q- c0 E

: P: i2 f2 q+ V* |9 Z1 A3 o. b答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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+ g' C6 K$ l" ?3 ^! O3 {/ E以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?' w) l1 Q$ U5 G8 q1 D  O5 F; p* O

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盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值5 t' Q* Y5 y* A! M9 V( S) |

, K& Y+ y! p2 z; O1 j* b许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。( B$ S' G) B1 {; I6 Y

5 c$ ?; g- l) b+ b; h你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润, s) J. w% M: w1 Y
60%的机会你会一无所有
5 h8 Q' x! y; T! m& o' f  f  m预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 ! w& q. v( y2 u- m9 F$ [
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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9 a" z4 k( X% F% F1 v4 h增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。- Q5 C. I0 Q1 _& f9 `0 H$ l
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基于增值的投注0 x5 x* N4 H6 C. P& v' K, o: ?4 }1 {
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)8 h4 m5 z* q1 K/ G& u/ F
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A=博彩资金, p( e3 M) p3 C& _  A
P=获胜机会# o# A0 c/ W  L- y0 ^" |- |# q
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)5 G5 l* ?7 L, s! @( L
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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( E& n  W+ |; E1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)/ n, C  ^7 e+ j3 E7 G
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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& y# q. B* Y; J8 dA=06 d4 u, M% @) I" G2 j" N

2 O. y1 j" k; u. m% a- r+ t3 Q结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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; V: y8 ]3 l8 b$ ^# k2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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! S4 s" t6 @& t! u" Q% \. L+ RA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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1 {" \3 u7 l9 o& J& ?3 u/ JA=0.15 a* O1 G+ D0 G

9 Q+ x6 M4 L2 C/ s7 Q8 @结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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. a. M  d% |# H3 U; |3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)7 O1 A- N9 G" z3 d

! F5 O; p* I8 O$ G+ zA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1), U0 i6 O! c% ?/ h
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A= -0.2
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" R/ l6 X5 A+ R' \结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好7 P6 |' i- j7 a+ v* m

3 l+ V6 G  d4 S4 m第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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