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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
. @* f# z0 b- ^4 Z, z
$ q' n" m0 ]; x* S/ }/ l6 W! g* [! I$ C3 |6 C1 `
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率5 z% K6 \( |& j& H: s2 F: [
. ~& o& X& E; [7 u( O4 ~1 Q以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
' n9 L& W) t# p8 ~! o& |
/ Z, ^3 r: O4 @1 |" t5 K0 B皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
! @: u0 P6 o2 S# z; ^% ^% c% H3 T8 B# G
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
& W6 B1 s: p4 k% v
! }' J9 K6 F! a( A* H x$ _, a答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)# J) j2 ]. e- Y3 r- L3 u8 i
8 n9 k4 \% E: ?+ d, \9 T7 u& I4 m O
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
3 {6 C$ v k0 O/ A
. ^5 |, P {5 C/ }: n3 I- i9 c; @$ z* \5 c
盈利可能性# O8 a9 G2 e9 V, ~ \$ g& ^9 Q5 _
8 S* `: E) Z, J, U对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。0 C9 ?) V% K8 M4 m
5 ~6 J9 I6 W# |3 R' c
增值
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) f5 q2 S; w! w# O: f6 N许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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8 X; O0 F$ z5 s& X0 G( c你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?9 H, ?; Y. S/ `( S, b; R
, L. E/ t5 l/ T6 l, ^
a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 0 s1 i, {$ }5 B i b$ H; t
& ~ `! ]) q7 i' h3 ^! N- \
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
% u- N! f7 ~* M3 X" n' o
# ?' R6 `9 Y. n( l, B40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
" s5 n0 p8 k0 a1 ~0 m, R6 A7 M60%的机会你会一无所有
0 s" H, b" r& ?3 D, E2 B R x预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
0 ^, B5 y+ B) E, a& {由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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$ s* X2 U: B1 Y% u( f4 E增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。( ~8 s0 G/ f% ]' m+ M+ V. E: z9 y- I
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基于增值的投注
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' `! B( w9 G& v# Y! ?4 P凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。& r# i* ~; t& i- A% V9 n: p i' Y
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)* ~2 M# j7 r' u% L& O1 y1 `
# R8 z9 L/ i: G; w' `5 PA=博彩资金. n! Y! U% t0 `1 o9 p
P=获胜机会
$ C8 C5 q9 {. J; P5 UO=总获得回报(包括投注本金). }6 z' i' t7 L; [0 q
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。# m0 H. O+ i& r9 b/ u
2 _; P# k$ t" I) x4 f/ P; T5 E好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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9 @) A: K5 n9 W! h1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)4 `+ G* j; D/ a2 I8 k
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)$ F' c/ R" H( H' B
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A=06 a0 H& F! b; n" B5 }
* N- }# A+ W! z" N! A- V( l结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢# w3 }: E' i+ l: n& C# A7 b; y
! u9 k! W* w1 N" ~+ U. k2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)3 j) P. ?( q+ V3 J
) e- k( B+ Z5 `' I' jA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)8 r! [% x* n) f6 l% V2 D8 E9 T
" P( U) n" A9 c4 k2 K* m; p0 yA=0.1
" Y$ b7 T- k. m
! W7 ~5 m( S1 i) @) |结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
; H: M' L) |/ q- l
1 m' I( g3 n. |3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)" s! F2 [, Z1 Z# w5 L7 a2 g
" Z2 t# V( c& d: _; w+ k/ j* n
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)( n9 I; b% S1 k) \* U6 ?( x" H
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A= -0.2 * x7 G7 u: F; O7 A5 y" [3 U
+ X' b* O, [+ x# H$ p
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
7 r; l8 z4 a) U
7 S6 E% I/ B" |8 i/ K4 b第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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