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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。0 i8 d& Q4 g: v' D* z0 |7 ~
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4 ]8 t8 `. @, n- a8 ~6 r" g2 p, p- M
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?/ a9 d/ J6 f! c9 y& o1 @; \
. D/ w4 e4 t0 N7 B答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?/ ]/ X9 ~) g! t, g
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# J2 O) ?( G/ X- D5 f U
盈利可能性
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( y5 w P4 J- K u: O$ A9 G; ]% P K对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。/ k( P8 n# m1 }/ w0 K0 L" w$ o
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增值! E. N+ z. m* }: \3 i" C% C
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。; _1 @, C. X% Q2 _/ O# P
3 ^0 H1 \" k& W! E你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?6 B" }, v/ j6 T: t6 W3 y$ Q
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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) y4 H2 d! [: z2 k0 R( b- W+ [正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润4 n5 N3 S# L' f
60%的机会你会一无所有' x# y7 [- `' O. ^
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
# U) D# c- v/ l% C! Y0 O由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。8 z: X3 w0 R4 J1 S
6 x ^7 e' b7 F# Y3 v3 P& T增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。: ]/ V" {0 a. h/ L. f% y* E, @5 F
( T7 A) x& w% V) G8 a0 e基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。0 F+ x$ B3 o4 }/ h
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)* ^$ |/ y" ?9 y& I' U! _
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A=博彩资金
' q I6 v% V, s" E C: \* iP=获胜机会3 Q$ f# F1 K( p$ E4 w. [9 X
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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3 r$ ]- X& Z8 h9 O/ O' k9 _- L1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)0 u2 C2 P- c) E% t* G; n& U+ c
( Q! F0 m) {, E8 c2 GA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0* E/ B& F) d/ _1 G) `8 a
4 h6 }* F: O& i Y0 S9 Z结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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{) H8 l g% D' G# Z0 c! NA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1, v& T, E+ Y, S* Y$ M
: s7 E( u5 R9 \' h$ N; a' w0 Y. F结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去9 n0 N9 K( n- P# J% w: G4 ^# W
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2) Z# c* A2 B) b% Y+ n9 V
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)* `% d$ p A1 ]" {5 X5 J" ?
. b9 g0 T' h& k8 Z: G/ k* H; L+ XA= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好 K2 j. P T5 C
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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