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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 % j% |+ x& S6 g% Y- n& C
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; A+ k, W0 _$ \+ Q3 N; m只跟踪一个联赛8 C0 l" y1 f+ m
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$ R/ P: ^: a" G- E( G全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔. S# x& N. y' }% J

! k* b+ p+ r$ l5 t9 T) `三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，/ |# b* R- p0 B+ q8 A- O

: C; b3 c- n$ n% P4 ~4 g偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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# Q5 S  U& `$ E, v$ i方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）- b7 U! S8 X8 C( u$ h

. C% s% D4 J$ _: B4 A$ D8 Q然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
; W$ C& e) y* r2 k: d+ m  S% J) B# t1 I) G
就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
; P9 P* m9 V" T
* ], H  \. X- ]3 y当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目' |  y& M$ p2 L, {( a5 f: v

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& i4 K# w, y9 e  y. I! u- ~2 G% [) {* b: s/ d+ m
亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，' h2 G; X7 h, b& ^- t$ J: b% }

1 L$ ~# Z. p* w5 y0 N( A但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
; [2 |. G6 Q6 n) p2 m# O' C: a* q# K. a9 J* L1 F5 ]

" C* x- ^& T+ r' b$ K- U- z8 X
, r' p9 Q1 p. Q: q4 S理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。' c. k3 d: s- o

; g% u% }0 E- h7 g. }4 F( B) B" @排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
  P6 ?( R' C. Z
% a9 ?8 s2 w3 ^+ Q2 U3 U6 O9 j1 n这比买国债存银行合算。# W: o" ?5 {* L: ]0 {& f" z8 l  @5 f+ C

) J6 ]6 l- c$ K' U7 a+ V在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，( Y* Y* [( }6 j5 P+ G

7 [8 f. i" C0 e% y# l. I几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。; P. L8 f# V+ K/ k% X

, C! I& i) [2 Q$ V& W8 q! H; F  n
) j- N1 \, `% F6 B- m# j) G$ a/ }3 Y" p3 S  A5 J. R) E, P: D. n
常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。; D" p; n* {9 R+ t/ U% ?

: b9 _' z. @2 O放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，% q- g7 @: c0 n7 c5 t

# I2 U2 L, @! g* q. I$ W) r3 W就是回避了大的亏损，% k1 K0 w0 Z  ]; s. L1 K
, @+ D+ U) q. @, t( X! ]
大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，8 t: N# m- m% i7 j# V3 _, j) c

6 O4 ^! ^/ u6 _# M3 R回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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