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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
1 \$ H( C/ N1 w; w2 J* ?. e I* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
8 B; Y% p4 g* Q: e凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
$ `) Z3 N# ]. h$ n) ] }! u" D
- \; n t y8 V% | t0 yG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)8 B, e5 H/ z/ j% p! F
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [+ |" q% z, ?. S" v/ d& r" ^3 B
. s! w8 Z" E% P# i. u- [7 P& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
3 H2 e! {9 l4 Z: J/ ?既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 7 H4 Q2 x8 R) K
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s/ S' G2 U+ D. Z, @0 {! z
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
- i8 ]/ V: m8 c; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
7 i8 v6 g* [7 s% J(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n* S: Y O! J" t; T' @3 d% R* X" ^
! _8 A3 A- k5 N4 i9 W* ?(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
6 H1 W8 m0 B! _; f- t1 `( |0 X8 ]1 i5 w) W7 b" o
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
3 C( k4 X! F* H7 k* x( [' E# O9 y! h$ A9 j% }" o
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
: l9 c/ z. F/ M+ b' I' v$ F- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
/ k# U% d6 o& f- U6 p我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 , J. y, S" c9 W2 I
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
3 T2 U$ G9 L( V; ]6 DS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 - s2 f7 c: {, Z* B2 F1 M* k2 t
/ ^( T- ^. Z; z' b1 a2 F
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 1 b- n8 |0 z+ V+ M3 D7 e
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
3 d% w. f* M' Z) h7 pS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 ! T8 j2 `# q3 u4 g
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j( a) T( F0 H& f; l
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \4 H8 v4 v4 s4 u2 n$ C
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
7 J+ C N7 Q, z' X4 i! F$ O1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 * p" f9 n0 v$ n( |2 M
+ N3 |; U( U3 @% x& F2 ?: M5 z- P
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
H# v% r4 I+ n* j5 h
$ {, J5 L) p) A) v1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
b2 u# |! Y+ x7 D( j) N T/ m: }/ m6 P# J& |* ?/ ? b
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
5 y5 C! a p8 g: ]! C, Z& M2 Y" b: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r8 Q( s0 n( l( k3 u! E* N+ {+ F
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T9 b' g: }5 P8 p# R
" Z* \; Q; n( w7 U7 J; P" N
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
1 A0 Y" o, D3 j4 I4 ~3 N$ c+ B4 G" L7 { b% f8 i
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 8 j8 ]& ], y' x( f) m4 `' u! t* I
, h6 ?, ?" ^$ T. x+ v; F+ rS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s( X7 l; c+ g" q. y, k
; m' V% T, u, P% O3 y* Q4 u- x5 e
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
# P0 [) H, ~$ D6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
% z- X: I q6 E; dS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
1 _1 }' |& ?0 C1 v+ X% L9 X: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
1 i% T2 {0 m- K) I(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o3 e' u# l5 P6 W4 s$ M
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
6 G% Q5 B' E( T7 k, W7 U好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
3 t3 ?! B( Y) s u6 n) q( ], k9 L T& t# p. o2 f- \8 ~8 W* b
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
& ~) a! J1 s0 }8 \: V2 b
# b$ z& d8 {. ~8 RF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 0 A1 t) m4 U+ `5 Z0 q
5 l1 ?( k, T" s, `0 M4 p$ h8 Q4 O, Z
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?1 i% H$ f1 c" ^9 y% i' w
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
/ C8 X% @9 ?8 b5 z- nG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M f* M8 E6 ]7 ~( m
+ D$ n) P# X# M
7 D2 `5 D& i$ F0 d2 sG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 - L! Q8 D2 e$ V% u
. j. T& g' I+ O. y( }G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
1 G* T# h4 S$ M/ U' F- T& F. F) z+ _4 ~9 x
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
8 x+ o6 c; o6 k; F! F: M1 L: w6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i( L4 q& @( E2 I% P# C/ [2 D
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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