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随着投资者基本消化对经济衰退、央行“收水”的预期，全球债市正在经历一轮全线反弹。 " m2 I5 q. ]5 z0 |4 k ~- @2 y) `
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彭博指数显示，全球投资级债券5月份回报率接近1％，是去年7月以来首次录得月度涨幅。美国国债正迈向去年11月以来的最佳月度表现。一项衡量全球企业债的指标将创下自去年7月以来的最大涨幅，而新兴市场主权债也在上涨。
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' R+ X* T9 @# e) o市场乐观情绪渐浓
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: ]: A# V) v& |5 g! W, q9 w有分析指出，全球债市反弹的背后，是投资者已经基本消化对全球经济衰退、央行加息的预期。 - J6 T& [! r2 _8 q- X& z4 X
% U; X# n# K. `" o& R/ _在美国市场，美国一季度经济收缩幅度超过预期，美联储5月FOMC会议认为需要今年6月和7月的最近两次会议都加息50个基点，但同时暗示政策的灵活性，交易员大幅下调美联储加息预期。
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另外不可忽视的一点是，上一阶段债市大跌使债券收益率上升至更具吸引力的水平。
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* c3 |6 d" X/ o: ?日本资产管理公司AssetManagementOne Co.的全球固定收益基金经理 Akira Takei表示：“我预计全球债券将在今年余下时间带来正回报。” “收益率已从峰值回落，因为越来越多的投资者看到了债券的价值。债市最糟糕的时期已经过去。” : R: X4 V) A, \/ `7 |; |
, c3 m4 j& d" R3 @, T上周，资管类公司（包括养老基金和保险公司）上周将看涨美债的押注提高到2020年4月以来的最高水平。与此同时，摩根大通、摩根士丹利和太平洋投资管理公司都公开表示，全球债券抛售浪潮已经结束。
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9 {. e! F* ]9 j1 O* H截至发稿，10年期美债收益率已经从5月初3.20%的3年高位降低至至2.84%。
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10年期德债收益率已从三周前1.19%的峰值降至1.05%。
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/ v' V8 G3 p+ O: D8 |9 s+ o摩根大通资产香港首席亚洲市场策略师Tai Hui表示投资者现在应该增配固收资产。Hui说： ' x/ v* U1 j/ z8 h9 h9 u% e
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