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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
' U- O. m8 y8 ^! S+ |余勋也不例外、 * \$ S! w" K0 I8 {' [$ D0 w$ q* M0 s
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
* k& _! a* u; H5 T' ~是保经济的重要决策！
4 f+ V& @% U7 Y! T5 g& ?7 v这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
; k" t$ J0 b* U. Y1 o+ p3 d低点26700-32400、 1 U# O% b1 [9 `& U
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
8 | `' |+ h: g1 H1 F; f但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
: Q4 F) R! j; j; g" O大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
1 ?8 k n; ^$ f8 V涨幅就已回撤过半！ * q7 i+ |8 x1 G2 [, h2 q
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 ) ~. S# Q. e4 f& p3 d
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
# @' P6 h6 N8 |# c, c" n+ n# n其次、
! }" |8 X4 E b& Y; V缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
. i7 O4 L q) E1 V, ~每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 2 n; M& M- }1 V1 M( s q: k/ Q
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 5 M( t! w5 W0 e
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 1 B' j! E* V! P( ?7 Y
但回到币圈、 # A: {/ q7 F* ?! a) e0 N
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 " w! J' h3 i$ D
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
0 t5 m! ^( P: Z9 V! U& B2 h而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 3 t& l7 F. C2 I2 S
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
$ c [3 I9 n- G/ \: ^) T3 ?+ B) @: J缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 " S& i* `9 y8 C7 V
对当前的底部、影响有限。 " B1 j$ g4 H; r" \0 {
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 3 v% j7 t& w4 @
所以27000、即是 & L1 F s5 i9 F+ ^3 G
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
6 u- O8 E3 O; i. n3 J同时还是去年放水初期低点、 ! J* o/ Z0 `4 I( F
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
( S4 a6 C9 K4 f+ m/ z0 P由此得出的结论是、 7 d9 a5 j% I9 ]6 d" O
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
* M. _2 y9 e% y' l! K' @点位不会出现太大偏离。 + `' X3 U' e; g4 k
综合以上、
i( U( ]! y& T) I( @美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
* D+ `+ [) H$ u5 O在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
" c( b& @4 e, }1 ~% o$ W那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 * x# n) c5 _6 O& D
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 ' I( b' \/ y) n& T9 K& r' s$ j) T
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 1 W0 o; X/ s6 Q$ m8 Y2 u$ f
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
0 N! ]1 q+ g8 p* k, s+ g美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 4 y" ?* _! \. |0 M) N; p+ v
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 % P3 w! V t# |
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
' s8 ]8 {0 N$ ?# S: @9 o' t逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
, F( ^/ `/ Z$ t) {5 W6 [高空需至31700-32000间布局、 0 u$ O4 {- k2 A8 a* B& y
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
* |, ] G% @% w c' G& ~0 K& Z得不偿失。 - k( M* o. T0 ]9 T( q* r( A3 p8 j( p
来源：金色财经 |
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