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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
5 w1 j n9 z Q% {3 I( y余勋也不例外、 ; F4 d$ M0 s" m3 r5 ]
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 , _7 C9 L' h2 K' F! Q9 [2 o" U
是保经济的重要决策！
; |+ {5 f9 u$ L$ H, r0 O6 H这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
' H& i, [8 m" G- c低点26700-32400、
# r8 C' v4 m0 D4 X* z; q反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
; b% @% y/ ~; w% l1 J但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
7 n8 n5 J) z" t/ K1 I% L \9 c+ k大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
_4 B4 f* J; U( v4 E5 s涨幅就已回撤过半！
$ U8 |# v1 T2 u所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 % ~! V" e0 g& P' c
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
! J6 ~* N2 c2 y6 I! T R其次、 ! M/ ^3 z, r( M* I9 j
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
2 b q) t! u- h r% B9 F每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
* i% a3 [4 O7 T8 }6 Y等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 # a7 H0 p' T c/ ~, w+ t
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
1 u- }- f9 m0 Y9 V- w' E# v& m" {但回到币圈、
7 Y* `, J3 U S0 j0 u* t! ?去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
) G9 c8 Z7 c- y) t, F/ L# ?/ q在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 ! `7 X( s3 P# S3 S+ u4 h
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
k5 n0 R% ^' {个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
4 t0 o) Y% m5 ~0 k缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 2 X( N/ j# K$ d& N0 F' M- J0 t
对当前的底部、影响有限。
- u) M1 ?' R- h0 l4 n. z+ U$ P最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
# f4 o2 f* |7 @) I% ~" ?所以27000、即是
# v* G6 ~% u `) a! K, m. b去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
Y+ v) a1 ]! Y, Y0 `同时还是去年放水初期低点、
9 f8 I( K. b6 H也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 $ J2 U& U0 y+ P f/ }" m7 \* C. j4 ~$ R- r
由此得出的结论是、 $ A O5 X/ b+ u& N
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
! J* O0 d* } V* p点位不会出现太大偏离。 6 i+ i8 l: I, B% }) s
综合以上、
0 S! m. `& a% g( [/ V& a& F9 k美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 B7 r+ T/ G- p9 }
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 ( x& t) g0 r( d5 @
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 3 N6 W) V0 K- v' s1 y
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 ! }# {: w& b% j2 D6 l' b: z+ E/ Z
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 8 ~) S9 ]) n8 U. }' j3 u T
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 ; L) |$ e4 M: l6 k
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 0 r+ C/ O4 j) k
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 + p- X% J% d+ p- j
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
$ {0 ?0 I& \3 B+ T+ `6 v* L0 y逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
( n J% O$ K, l- l高空需至31700-32000间布局、 . v$ W1 T& B( Q0 M7 M
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 0 v, B6 v) W8 |! u, Q+ J
得不偿失。 7 [0 p E3 T8 W; a
来源：金色财经 |
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