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币市、股市的涨跌的本质是资金流向，所以要想弄清大周期的牛熊周期转换、明白哪个区间是顶底，就必须理解宏观、中观、微观三个维度的信息，以及这些信息之间的关键逻辑。
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首先通货膨胀的本质是市场上的货币供给量大于市场上的商品总量所需货币供给量，通胀并不全是坏的，分为良性通胀和恶性通胀，一般通胀率低于5%的时候，算是良性通胀，高于5%就是恶性通胀，这个标准在不同的国家又有差异，发达国家这个标准更低，发展中国家标准更高，所以美联储今明两年首要任务便是争取把通胀率控制在2%以下。良性通胀对币市和股市是正向地推动上涨作用，货币供应量的增多可以增加市场需求，刺激企业扩大产能，增加企业利润，股价自然就会随之上涨，同时人们会觉得自己手里的钱在贬值，从而推动人们去消费和投资金融资产，减少储蓄，这时候股票的需求量增加，股价自然上涨。
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但随着货币供给量的增加，再加上一些突发事件对经济造成冲击，如疫情 俄乌战争，此时增发的货币就会导致恶性通胀，恶性通胀发生时都会有一个向下传导的过程，从原材料涨价，企业成本增加，企业利润下降，导致股价自然下跌，随着时间推移，企业会将增加的成本转嫁到商品上，当大部分商品都涨价的时候，也就意味着消费者手里的钱购买力下降，最终降低消费者的消费欲望，从而导致企业的商品销量下降，企业缩减产能，进而开始裁员（从特斯拉和国内互联网大厂裁员可见一斑）而被裁的人因为没有收入，进一步导致消费疲软，最后形成恶性循环。
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美国是消费推动型经济体，整个通胀传导过程中，对不同的行业会有不同的影响，有好有坏，有涨有跌，恶性通胀会让大的经济形势变得很不稳定，ZF一般面对通胀时，会采取减少财政支出和加息、提准之类的货币紧缩政策，把市场上的钱收回来一部分，让货币总量和商品总量再次保持平衡，这时市场里的钱变少，股市自然会下跌。
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! ^1 e5 l- P) v3 {5 n& i总之，通胀前期对股市 币市利好，人们投资金融资产抵御通胀，后期随着泡沫大了，随之而来的货币紧缩政策对股市 币市利空，当然利空到一定程度后就是绝佳的机会，因为当通胀下降到温和的水平后，为了刺激经济发展，新一轮的货币宽松政策又会出来，股市 币市会再次上涨。
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来源：金色财经 |
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