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BV说7.11——比特币（BTC）以太坊（ETH）行情分析 后市操作策略
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 分钟
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● 今天恐慌指数22，恐慌程度有所缓解，等级仍为极度恐慌，大饼屯币指数0.3257，已进入抄底区间，长线可按金字塔分批进行定投。
● BTC：昨日白盘横盘震荡，直到晚间行情选择向下破位，早间空头发力再次下行，低位跌至20450一线，目前币价在20500附近震荡，四小时级别整体呈阴跌伴随小反弹状态，上方压力20800-21200，下方支撑20500-20000
● ETH：昨日破位1170后延续下行，低位跌至1143一线，四小时来看，底部支撑还是较为强势，两次试探1143未能破位，短期行情预计会缓慢向上去试探，目前看空头趋势暂时止跌，上方压力1165-1180，下方支撑1145-1120
● LTC：经历大饼影响市场整体出现反弹后，整体开始回落，目前中期有望继续震荡上行，下方支撑48附近，压力区间54附近。
BV观点：不论CPI还是PCE，要回落到美联储2%的长期均衡目标附近均非易事。5月份，美国PPI同比增长10.7%，增速环比回落0.2个百分点，但仍相当于2017~2021年增速均值的3.8倍，为2010年11月有数据以来的次高位。6月份，月均RJ/CRB指数同比增长49.5%，增速环比回落2.5个百分点，却仍近10倍于2017~2021年均值，继续支撑PPI、CPI高位运行无论从价格还是数量看，美联储紧缩才刚刚起步。首先，美联储三次累计加息150BP，最新的联邦基金目标利率为1.5%～1.75%，远低于目前CPI增速8%以上、核心CPI增速6%左右的水平，实际利率显着为负值。其次，美联储虽已停止购债并启动缩表，但6月2日~6月29日，其资产负债表仅收缩15亿美元，其中美债减少68亿美元，MBS增加19亿美元，未兑现其5月份议息会议宣布的6～8月份每月减持300亿美债、175亿MBS，每月缩表475亿美元的目标，稳物价不仅是美国的经济问题更是政治问题，经济减速、美股调整并非美联储货币政策转向的充分必要条件，将其当作资本市场利好交易更要十分慎重。未来最令美联储感到棘手的局面是，经济衰退、美股暴跌，通胀却没有下来多少。对于当前经济环境，投资者的能力永远是有限的，市场才是真正强大的，只有在交易中遵循顺势而为的原则，才能规避风险和灾难。对于市场的变化还是要保持敬畏的态度。
来源：金色财经 |
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