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[lastpost] => 2645526 现货ETF即将在港上市,还有哪些香港概念值得关注?(转) 1714163867 我的花园
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2 _; Y. Y" C6 T4 i: L, z* Z. [5 |干货——BTC挖矿电费成本到底是多少?
' |4 {$ Z7 `) \: k很多人预言BTC在熊市不会跌破主流矿机的挖矿电费成本,包括著名BTC投资人李笑来。为什么这么说?可能有几方面原因:一是从历史经验来看,BTC确实没有跌破过主流电费成本。二是有一个逻辑就是,如果BTC价格一直跌,跌破主流矿机的挖矿成本,那么这些大矿场就会直接购买btc,这样对价格有一个支撑作用。那么既然明确了价格与挖矿成本存在这么一个关系,我们可以试着探讨电费成本问题。
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6 v* v- i% w z& h# l" C一、要确定电费成本,首先要大致预估挖矿难度的变化值,这样可以基本确定挖矿需要的电力。因为在相同电价的条件下,电费成本主要由挖矿难度决定。: z, Y, J9 [/ z0 f: y
BTC历史挖矿难度变动情况:* c, d- W3 A, ], S
图片:不会贴图不会贴图不会贴图
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7 @% V4 K2 m: ?3 M) l4 X" t. e' {很多人觉得熊市挖矿难度也会同步下降,但是sorry,即使在2018年这么大熊市,挖矿难度也增长了近2倍。(难度按照年初首次统计,年中基本呈波动上升状态)7 H7 U& h8 v% d7 R$ [
好了,那么我们取难度涨幅最低的值1.6倍来测算2019年的难度,测算下来,每期难度平均上涨约4%。这是我们后面测算的假设前提。
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* ~0 h+ e% O% e* p* S+ V. @二、于是我们就得到了下面这个表。# p. U: n; C" D2 Z5 A4 \( }
图片:不会贴图不会贴图不会贴图" {1 A" |: P+ U
# G) l4 J4 m' R- [好了,很清楚了。第一档,家用电的小散,早就关机了。
& A7 c! _% c! j1 h第二档,普通水电、常规托管电费的,挖矿暂时没亏,但是算上矿机成本也早已亏本。5 W0 m0 K' A# ?; H
第三档,老少边穷的风电、火电等,如果买矿机的基本也是保本状态,因为按照1台s15每年大约挖0.3个btc,需要3台矿机同时挖1年才能得到1个btc,而矿机的使用周期差不多2年。+ \" P( I3 @* T3 `$ k& W
很多人还说有第4档,伊朗、乌克兰等0.1元甚至不要钱的电,请问有考虑ZZ、安全风险没,真的去的也是少数。呵呵。
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三、那么又一个问题来了,大家都亏损或接近亏损,为啥还有人挖?原来有一群人矿机成本是很低的,比如极寒同学,他们在新疆的矿场,BTC成本肯定不到2万。所以所谓的主流矿机挖矿成本为什么可以基本刨去矿机成本?明白了没。3 V' w! F) }7 U: l! k
当然,价格主要由供需决定,难度、算力都是随着价格波动。所以并不是说价格没有下降空间了,如果价格继续下降也是成立的。有什么疑问大家互相探讨。
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挖矿这个概念和虚拟币关联起来,我真是一点也弄不明白 |
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