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[虚拟币交流]
比特币减半后若币价低于3万美元 大量矿企将巨额亏损(转载)
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比特币区块奖励每四年减半一直被市场认为是牛市启动的催化剂,许多人认为跟着这个8 ?- h# |6 b& j4 K' r' d( D
叙事投资大盘是稳健的,但对于比特币矿工来说,挖矿的电力、设备成本和区块奖励之间的权衡就更为复杂。) j' ]/ |+ b- r1 E6 Y' y" Q" o
比特币减半,矿企成本将翻倍4 L2 h: ?0 V+ |* n9 _
目前,每个区块的奖励是6.25个BTC(价值约170,000美元),而到2024年4月,这个奖励将对折减少到3.125个
$ e$ p+ ?* Z5 g% A: [. fBTC(价值约85,000美元)。
* U. B" g& S; G3 UBlocksbridge挖矿咨询公司的研究主管Wolfie Zhao表示,目前上市的矿企每挖掘一个比特币的成本为10,000-$ l9 W& W& v0 @1 c
15,000美元。一旦减半发生,这些成本将翻倍,使得矿工的收支平衡点达到20,000-30,000美元。
+ H3 O u. U6 Q% n% o8 ^- l根据Zhao整理第一季的数据,Stronghold Digital Mining(SDIG)、Cipher Mining(CIFR)和Riot
: |+ u% \' `! \- w! ?- h( CPlatforms(RIOT)的生产成本最低,Stronghold每个比特币的成本为8,200美元,Cipher为8,600美元,Riot为5 V, b9 x( P0 d2 ~: @ K
10,400美元。
; H5 X! c' O" {, A& s0 p+ w6 R假设减半后比特币价格没有明显的上升,未来只有成本最低的矿工才能存活下去,其他矿企无可避免的面临到越
% t6 C. C: h. n5 g. @挖越亏的地步。TeraWulf(WULF)的营运战略长Kerri Langlais表示:在减半之后,能源成本和设备效率将决定谁. M! ]( B2 h7 J! H1 B. ^, B( s
是赢家和输家。. ]9 V7 R7 [' a% W; v) I; ]
比特币挖矿成本是贵金属两倍
' s+ T4 ^ w \6 X挖矿服务提供商Luxor Technologies的分析师Jaran Mellerud认为现在这个时机点对于矿企来说是充满不确定性
7 p; R) `9 _6 c4 L0 b的,需要衡量是否要扩增新设备,而相对于其他行业,挖矿业需要很高的资本成本,是贵金属行业的两倍,判断8 r6 s- B. ]$ o* \* T
错误将付出更大的代价。# ^$ {6 a6 H+ F4 x5 V O$ i; _$ n
即便面临挖矿难度和算力不断创历史新高,且相对于2022年秋季比特币价格降至约15,000美元的低点时,矿企的
$ s* X% |& \: Y, C0 Y8 j, H' V情况已经有所改善,但是现在的算力和难度增高是反应先前的投资,是否要持续投入又是对于下一阶段的预测。" E% K' G5 @8 M' y! m
比特币价格的上涨或下调还有能源成本都关系到矿企的盈利能力,决定他们在减半后决定是否需要运营下去。" j" C8 F# F. B2 M8 p! t+ D4 T
/ b! `5 ~/ B8 G) ~% H* V( [, D& U
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