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[虚拟币交流]
Arthur Hayes：美国联准会仍会回归量化宽松！加密货币成救命稻草（转载）
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加密货币衍生品交易所BitMEX共同创办人Arthur Hayes，时常撰文畅谈有关加密货币4 K, u' H2 u6 E# r( n% s2 J
的市场概况，其精辟入里的观点备受许多读者关注，而近日他再次发布长文《Kite or Board》，文中痛批联准会
: X% f: ]" T% O, `, ^* M的政策方向注定会失败。4 D5 V+ F8 {) f6 m
批评联准会提油救火
6 z0 K% L: y2 ~5 kArthur Hayes指出联准会试图通过提高利率来抑制通货膨涨，但又同时通过缩减资产负债表来回收流动性。然
- x. J L- t, z$ J% L& g而，加息会导致美国ZF支付更多的债务利息，其实等于对有钱人提供了另一种财政刺激，而缩表会直接从银行
% H9 O+ H& B* ?7 o体系中回收资金，这两种政策的影响可能相互抵消，此举无疑是美国ZF在「割肉来治疗疮疤」。! u0 H, E/ F2 E4 U e5 m
Hayes提到1980年代的美国是可以这么做的，因为据统计数据显示，1980年美国债务占GDP的比例为30%。而今7 k% ~& p! N4 z! R( l
天，这个比例高达118%，这意味着当初的ZF开始收紧货币供应并且让利率飙升时，美国ZF的财政状况并未受
6 Z E6 ^# G1 ?6 e; s" U到太大影响，因为还没有太多未偿还的债务，如今2023年情况完全相反，现在的债务规模已增加了4倍。" }( `/ a! X8 |: I) I
Hayes表示截至2023年第二季度，美国财政部按年计算已向债务持有人支付了近1兆美元的利息。从宏观层面来
7 Y0 Y2 d. K2 y' _6 W8 l4 h看，很明显随着联准会加息，美国财政部会以利息支付的形式向富人提供刺激。
: P8 c) x$ N8 r4 `( T& T; `" b恐重启量化宽松，金融巨头关注加密货币- g% g; V+ S8 X5 J% @8 B
Arthur Hayes在文中邀请一位在联准会的专栏作家，同时也是经济学家的Dr.Charles W.Calormiris分享看法，他
! B5 H' }3 j4 `& P1 N指出美国ZF可能在不久后重启量化宽松政策：当债券市场开始相信ZF的有息债务已超出可行性的上限时，政
c. u H# t+ M府的下一次债券拍卖会有一个意义上「失败」，即市场对ZF信任不足，对新债券发行的利率需求越来越高，最* U7 z, [; Z4 N0 L6 B% v* Z
终ZF撤回了发行，并将「印钞」作为替代方案。
3 B" F& N; {6 o1 V* F- Z' CCalormiris警告：重启量化宽松后，整个金融体系会发生剧烈变化、Arthur Hayes也补充提到「金融脱媒」，由
8 w, z* Z/ y1 ?于全球又会因降息再一次面临低迷的收益率，所有资金将从银行体系流向其他替代渠道，银行和资产管理公司会- T* u8 s) T/ ]0 ^
突然热衷于加密货币，因为知道ZF正在争夺他们的存款基础，确保自己持有唯一可用的通膨解药，就是加密货
1 l# f# w( O" ^" r币。
3 y9 f, m% W! j! I
* }7 e+ x5 ~4 A/ P) c1 x |
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