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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人7 E' f: Q/ r* ?0 C& }( L; c
b& p( v7 k" p2 R% C' e认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
& p4 J4 s/ x' K: R' v4 x S) J3 u, P- N
而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
# V5 m: W/ j" p: W& D4 t
+ \" Y- E3 [" Y; q4 t2 M的千禧一代。, h- L9 V6 N) K3 ?( A5 T
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB; j/ u) v* y2 k+ \% e
: _! W" l" l8 E: x6 z' D的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“2 J; F' a# {& Q$ ~: T* m8 v
# ^/ N4 ^# u$ C, |
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
& N1 }1 b1 d# s: A7 k4 j4 _; d- h9 @' V) r4 t' T; T3 I# Z- ?
密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
{. o" P7 T: v0 U: Z- }
% e/ c, a. F1 s% O8 E《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成8 s( p& u# M" t
6 r. W! t5 ^* q7 h) ?% Q的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
$ m) h; ~0 G7 b9 [0 A6 K) e
' a" {, u0 G( q" i: x8 o2 ~) B报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；7 Z+ R# Y- l; p& _. y7 V' g! f
4 r/ ^6 u" W# V3 E2 S: z10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
# Q. H- b4 e4 `" C: t: \, L) n. m- Z8 A& A) Z9 m& V0 ~ j( f7 H1 Z
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。: J0 n% o+ @ ^1 D0 {- o
9 c- S! E( s& K( y
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降' J* a% o& `3 t% |
9 I3 L, S$ ~% ~' C) m
息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。, f2 k" D: R5 r; E. ~; e) `1 Q
& u1 |( W( A% F6 T( G2 \! X9 i4 A与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
$ z8 ]; ~) j, s0 U0 D% }/ d2 q! Q8 O. m" ~8 [" y
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富( ?$ T d4 ?7 O4 Z
* [ V6 ~) K# g
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不+ u( d' O+ q5 W
0 {- |+ F, V/ Z% v! A0 T& q
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一+ V4 U* S( I% @9 @/ y
6 R1 @' Q- n1 V! j
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
6 F; m& q3 q0 N9 n
! W: M1 [+ f8 q; `本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体/ D7 A' `" L. q* C/ ?! t# p
6 B7 F8 O* A9 f' n1 y% \5 d系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货 }/ D7 Y7 D1 U4 Q7 A- r9 x& }3 {0 f
- b Z: z5 ]5 l8 c5 w9 D
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
" \, b {2 n$ J! k9 U
6 G" H6 |* ]- Z' ^0 e; z0 L未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
D$ }& t2 Q) S l* \& Q: Z4 Z( U/ D! d9 _% _* N0 F9 q! e
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
5 u9 t& A. z' g$ B0 G: Z, H1 O& x: g# x) M- P# ] g
: s: {! [' z# D/ |+ g
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