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[lastpost] => 2818365 赛勒的策略在连续13周买入比特币后暂停（转） 1774923094 小钱儿
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
7 o1 G9 E+ H. n6 L' {" E
8 Z& U+ X# t3 U4 N1 Q认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
! P/ B L% n+ _; X$ p2 U
$ O- `/ |" M d* y' ]: k而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
2 x" c' Y5 G3 y
/ |* s6 `: K5 \1 _的千禧一代。$ p* u5 L. i' a1 Y e7 f1 W" G
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB; r) i% W4 W8 E3 F$ t$ y8 M9 l7 I: }
2 s9 N; i2 B+ U* Y7 m* E5 T的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
8 g3 B. E5 W8 r; d( b# d$ \9 w4 n
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
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密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据7 K$ T6 j3 U. T" I( K& ?" F2 }3 Y
$ g/ u4 @4 x+ e+ J: q0 n, F《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成 k4 f& c' ^& x, r0 i1 M4 B6 i7 W
8 t8 ` ~! x7 B+ ]8 I# e* B& w
的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》6 w+ }" f8 C8 j2 g5 f3 a
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报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；& I* K: x" R! u. J+ G' m8 w2 T6 L
5 _9 \" P+ A m0 s
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
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ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。1 u% i- U; A; ?& u* X* h
' ~& B# T& `" p! ]5 V$ s: L据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
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$ _6 P# ?3 J5 d; g7 E& R息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。* l1 F' M; N6 P; \: S2 h
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与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密& T, ]/ |4 `% S+ l
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世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富: ?4 C3 t( E% V1 D6 P* T
/ k) P: f6 `" Z! W. r3 S传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
3 A X2 T. a% G
7 ]8 t0 D* B% O/ l: L D到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
3 F3 T8 f1 T' @' e! ?( G- j! c8 B! a0 C& @" i$ ^3 c R
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
" \% o/ I3 ^, m4 _7 J
6 F* \& A& n) |5 w, s9 k' F2 w4 ]4 ~本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
# B4 U! P+ u+ N7 q2 M! C! ]2 {1 D: }8 l- k( a4 ?6 U
系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货1 d( M) w/ |. X) X- K ^ `/ p/ P
: i, q# ~) Y/ o/ C2 N! q币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致' I& ?: d3 {/ ~1 E) B
/ O) c- J" g* [. `; O
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
3 P: \8 P9 u: S! V C+ W* H3 u' ]* O0 R2 F1 q# o5 @
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。* G: l2 R5 u, m$ \* t' a
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