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[lastpost] => 2818766 贝莱德比特币ETF交易量在加密货币市场激增——这预示着什么？（转） 1775343120 whywhy
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[虚拟币交流]
Peter Schiff：比特币现货ETF获准可能对币价产生灾难性影响（4日转）
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( Q( w N) e" @) p9 B5 G- S4 M2 I
尽管市场对美国当局可能批准第一档比特币现货ETF充满期待，知名比特币怀疑论者、
8 F- }6 R( l# E( y3 ]7 m6 a, a- Q: O提倡拥抱黄金的Peter Schiff警告，比特币狂热人士要小心不要抱持过多期望。
( l+ O. N6 ~: W/ H) KPeter Schiff在社群平台X上贴文表示，比特币现货ETF获准可能对比特币价格产生灾难性影响。他说，关于美国上
q9 f% L( d8 r0 L5 V市推出比特币现货ETF的展望，已经支撑了比特币的价格和投机性需求长达数年。这代表，如果预料中的机构投资; k$ Q) l" c" v( Q
需求没有来临，就算ETF获得核准上市，比特币价格也会暴跌，「当心冲击！」
* x( C$ g2 y f ^) {7 Z/ M# UPeter Schiff长期来一直对比特币持怀疑态度，而且多年来持续预测比特币会灭亡，然而比特币每轮周期的表现都
5 z% D6 i6 h9 _7 M0 {证明他是错的。他的推文收到比特币支持者的大量留言，这些支持人士提醒他，正如黄金ETF并没有减损实体黄金
, l5 O; ^* B# d+ g7 _& ~的需求一样，如果出现比特币现货ETF，只会为比特币市场增添动能。
/ K& N1 Y) c$ _8 a6 M然而，搜集许多数据的顾问业者Matrixport也提醒说，比特币支持人士可能必须再等更久的时间，才能见到首档8 T I2 Y# H& r6 B( x% Y; B7 r
比特币现货ETF在美国上市。该公司预测，美国证管会(SEC)可能会在1月10日的最终期限否决所有比特币现货ETF
0 |! @2 [) I) `- r的申请。+ R3 c! Y' O. l. @# K; a. F8 w
Matrixport的最新预测和许多ETF分析师先前的预测截然相反，一些分析师预期这些申请案有90%的机率会在1月
. O( u! {) }9 j7 _/ t5 ^# y10日的最终期限前闯关成功。不过，Matrixport表示，尽管ETF申请者频繁与SEC的工作人员开会，但「所有申请
o! T4 {% V/ T& B0 f/ A3 T案都没有达到能获得SEC核准前必须达到的关键要求。」Matrixport表示，预期在2024年的第2季前，都不会见
5 U( x& j2 q; d到有任何一档比特币现货ETF获准上市。- |: X4 w! }+ Q! M5 ?8 P
该公司的分析指出，目前在SEC的五人投票委员小组中，包括SEC主席Gary Gensler在内的民主党人占了多数地
9 I( p& L6 H2 k' g# E; z5 B位，因此不太可能投票通过核准比特币现货ETF。
0 \/ J3 z! G) i: T# {" a0 G许多报告援引匿名消息人士预测，第一档比特币现货ETF会在1月2日前获得核准，然而这并没有发生。随着SEC在7 U( Q3 L& x! M" ?/ v7 j
1月10日做出决定的最后期限逼近，市场的乐观情绪正转变为怀疑，证据包括加密货币挖矿公司的股价走软，而且
4 N- f6 H1 Z' z9 z0 X4 p几档与比特币相关的美国股票卖压涌现。此外，比特币在1月3日盘中一度大跌9%。
) i1 d% G" M, R) M彭博社ETF分析师Eric Balchunas先前一直看好比特币现货ETF有99%的机率会在2024年第1季获准上市，现在他
7 [( w+ e. a9 g9 F" y6 f9 E相信，SEC仍有「些许」机会可能拒绝比特币现货ETF的申请案。* \0 t2 Y6 ~! o" i0 q9 t; Q
+ R- ?# n5 F( l7 _" I n* V
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产生灾难性影响的是要看啊& O5 E, ^$ q* G% b6 [5 @
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