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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘; J6 B5 @+ g `" _ q) `
2 R2 _# ~( \* |/ {9 f$ }. s
平手中水,主队有利
6 M' j Z+ D4 A; E) O: i 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
0 _6 m9 y" O, ]8 | 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:& H3 `% f3 W6 Y# n* J" f4 y
英超主队
6 L4 y1 a3 V0 f% Q! m 胜:13场 48%
) _0 R1 l! K1 j 平:5场 17%0 v. _3 Z1 r+ K0 I, _1 ^9 Y7 T" c
负:9场 35%( o" R' m" G7 o3 @" y; c
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。1 ]% p: b; P1 Z% u2 I, F
& }+ p0 v: e3 K9 i0 n- d 一、初盘阶段; l( }2 x% G- Z% v8 y2 ?8 {
具体到水位如下:
9 I( `2 B# d# `- ~ 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
E2 y' q( c7 F& k; X% \5 D1 j 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
/ X. C7 Q: q, r7 ]% c 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负% R/ N; H, V+ [
3 B: o1 c$ z4 O) Q 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。! F9 E' L3 C2 n0 I* o I
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。: m' t1 U2 V8 S7 o. I" Z0 R
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
; {' W# d5 {! W8 a; B- ]7 L " V8 P) N# I1 o. }/ ~8 [
二、临场阶段3 T. k& p6 u g# a" T, M7 \; D
5 C6 E+ W/ W+ k5 {( ? 具体到变盘和水位如下:' W" y9 X, j$ e) y! Z
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
) _% R4 B- ?1 i1 c( v8 \7 n$ ~ 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
% ~5 l$ c* ^ k: `* J, V) { 1 w5 T- {& \+ A# b9 [1 B+ g, l5 r
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
( J/ f' ^$ k! N 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
7 |. E9 d: R- J2 z. I6 Z& e* J ( J) P: Y3 v" t2 W1 H) T4 B( H
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿5 y3 j$ Z7 @3 |9 R+ @! V
初盘:0.82平手1.04# a) X# n/ s. S9 }
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.859 U. Z% x1 B% u, ^
/ n) G/ y. H! k8 {/ A9 z( ?" H' }# N 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
. G- H! C- v5 r1 Y, Q/ c0 J' U5 V9 z& [ 初盘:0.76平手1.10
, _+ g% P! H9 z P1 Z3 k6 Y+ G6 P 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91, }! N f v5 r& f# e
# S# t ?$ y' x+ x. J
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
) S, `5 l( A! a8 g7 ^+ C, W 初盘:0.82平手1.04( b2 G; I1 x5 O* D
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98' e' Z* Y/ }; }) K5 x
( v( X+ X3 z& m* D
伯恩利2-1西汉姆
* i; t' K! b3 x 初盘:0.88平手0.989 j Y. G) {3 {2 T
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
, E4 W8 P5 O1 S$ x s# C 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
. ~6 u. l* b% E0 v, S O 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
. ?9 I. a9 g* W) x2 a 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
' j: d$ F# P- z4 o! q4 G2 T
3 g. x" o& b5 ^+ M u) f 三、球队表现
" t) L# @9 n/ T% n/ M
7 U# d, c" y$ a 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。. C3 l" v1 Z9 Q1 k' m0 ~* u
! G! P W: `- G( v7 O 四、投注要点% l6 e1 l4 t8 b. j
要点1:平手中水、主多不败
2 n8 t* u _. H) W, G 要点2:平手降盘、走两头
. G+ I _) T8 O 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
/ s w9 \8 {) N1 K% b 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
6 D& N# j) _/ J( O/ `" D 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
* R3 I7 C$ Q& X( [& {/ t9 j6 \# L7 ~" ~ 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大) v# C: b: D. k8 p
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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