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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘3 Q/ A- k4 F! {
& P+ A; I& @! H9 }- k 平手中水,主队有利' L V% S( b# Y; x3 [
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。" J; j' a' H, Y; j
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:. O* O1 J0 ]' t
英超主队# ~8 g. }) I: H% S' B
胜:13场 48%
/ D5 }1 ~" t: U1 G$ C" ] 平:5场 17%
3 q) R$ ]* p6 P% D6 y+ z" q 负:9场 35%
0 ]6 q9 u# p8 ?( r 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
) d* N+ ~, K; f& D
/ g" W1 {4 Y, M# I 一、初盘阶段5 _3 a) I3 I X( D& T% E5 T0 R
具体到水位如下:% ~* G; b/ ]9 F* Q1 v' U! b
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负! J q8 d, c5 n) M
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
2 g, H( |# B6 t: X 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
3 G7 L: j0 |9 H; s" A# B8 R 0 |+ g5 z3 Q8 ~3 }# d
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。2 B3 h3 w+ G) p5 U' d% C' K
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。) B! o8 p t V8 e; r
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。 K$ O4 s% C' Q! s: }: X
4 a2 v1 ^- }4 H7 p/ U3 Q 二、临场阶段, p, O5 b* t! Q; _
- y ^) p/ P! X8 ] 具体到变盘和水位如下:
! @% U& x& e0 ] A: |5 l 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负1 u/ \3 y& p' b7 e4 Z9 K$ P. U8 G
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
: u# E9 ~4 }! r% W } 6 @; T$ e7 }% G$ h0 K
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
$ S0 S2 ~2 r$ z0 @- q7 \ 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:1 L7 |& E+ K' K [$ i: a
+ h+ h. k" D6 k- S6 n 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿$ F& d( }4 Z1 f- Q2 u6 m; `& b
初盘:0.82平手1.04
1 j1 a/ _( c- y* q9 ] 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85) A! m$ z- E9 j8 W: K4 u$ b
1 c: n: q7 [4 \1 |" Z
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆0 W" e% N; ^" @, K
初盘:0.76平手1.10
0 y6 Y" O- O$ v9 H 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91 z; P; w& H# f* Z% E6 O
8 Q7 {) \0 y+ M9 T. |* U# x
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
9 R6 [ o/ w- q- b7 ^ 初盘:0.82平手1.04
7 `/ m( c6 b7 x/ U' q 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
* W( e% t) H3 t5 g$ r8 H # ?2 F% k5 Z/ B
伯恩利2-1西汉姆5 c8 J4 L! c( b2 I( ~+ w* Y6 R) x" q1 D
初盘:0.88平手0.98
: B% j: Q0 H* k- V 终盘:1.12平/半0.74! f7 t0 ?5 v! p. d# P8 R+ ?; X
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。& O$ V! i1 a8 i5 E3 V0 A
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。( z& K- Y/ `+ K; f8 v- A. U, ]
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。- ]9 z8 ]* e! v4 }
3 b' v3 b/ f: f i( B/ m4 X) T 三、球队表现4 `8 N' {: ~$ H. [3 Z3 w
* I& f# _7 \$ }& u( f( C. _ 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。4 M8 ~ Z& Y6 a7 |0 ]: V6 \; Z+ g
# T' o0 T( l6 I; I0 v: N 四、投注要点
# k6 Q0 k9 \7 l& P7 \ 要点1:平手中水、主多不败
1 s% q1 v y! M9 @6 \8 `) i) t 要点2:平手降盘、走两头* ~; P% U( p3 p& d4 c/ l/ }
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败7 r+ r) f6 D8 }0 G. w$ Q
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
2 C& e; x6 M) `/ l1 \" `6 X 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
) {2 U/ f* Q2 k& m9 b 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大+ M; ~- X o9 ^( p" j- I; p
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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