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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。3 x% H* W+ o1 ]+ C7 F5 ?
自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。* l9 Y& y" O. X$ o0 f! z
% E' d: }. J0 R# e5 b6 ?- W自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。
3 @. S. a9 n4 s4 A2 W) |8 A( W& W% I# t9 Q# N; `
阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。
1 L+ F% Q, p5 D, \9 ]7 k
% C2 d3 V# H- Q8 F/ A2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。
3 M: m8 p$ V1 h5 e2 h
2 Q# m9 r' ^/ I; B0 p4 C那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?! p4 L( G2 t( T. h4 g5 t
" i% y S i7 D0 A ?
观察ETF和鲸鱼活动3 k, { J/ b! l3 G V
分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。5 r6 r( q$ b" M. O
& S/ P8 K9 `( O" J$ z. m
上周降至1300 BTC。 t2 e; B, T) o- I4 U, f
: X% m9 s* l3 E
从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。 q7 K1 S' E* V. ]
) k1 w$ y- _( r4 C: M i! ^
鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。6 }7 h" s0 t: B/ X8 W
! x6 c! y: m3 e! W! z# S( m
鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。
5 N4 m3 t. O6 r4 S) R: g: s* Z3 B: o) h
Santiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。) M: G3 b; Q3 ~3 h
% t6 d9 [5 y+ R9 }6 c尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。2 ]5 r( x$ y7 ~' n* L/ H5 t
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比特币会突破其区间吗?7 T' m( I4 B% y" F5 Q7 }4 d
随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。% l8 a G' O- x0 r4 T
: k7 K* ?% j: i& D根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。
' C0 a# Z* q/ D9 d$ g8 l& c. @1 w; S6 A& A2 x2 S6 y* z* A* q
因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。) p& V' x2 r3 g) C7 z1 S8 |
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技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。: c: s; O) g# i2 r" Q' ]
( E: }/ b5 [0 J; R6 d& P3 y位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。
: q! \& a2 J$ Q/ m& S: F( z3 Z然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。
. L% z# r( |/ R& E. t
, U' T+ O9 G& o4 B1 X根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。
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