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[lastpost] => 2691583 特朗普要当比特币大矿主?特高压变压器或成投资新宠! 1731952204 天策-瑶娥
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周三对市场来说将是重要的一天。预计美国央行在2022年加息后,最终将从23年来的最高点大幅降息,由此产生的影响可能会对所有主要市场产生广泛影响。
# ]2 k1 E+ y; V' Q$ c- n. o6 O d) |$ O/ _) [8 t9 q
在主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的领导下,美联储提高了借贷成本,以控制新冠肺炎疫情后飙升的通货膨胀。现在,随着就业市场的强劲,计划是降低利率,希望在此过程中不会引发经济衰退 ;& T' k- ^* R" \
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市场预计,在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议于今天开始并于周三结束后,利率将于周三下降 ;
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5 g5 l! f7 i7 d T4 u) D然而,这与加密货币有什么关系?为什么大家都在谈论这次会议 ;
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3 [" k' d% O/ X比特币其他加密货币在很大程度上受益由于它们是“风险资产”,因此利率较低。此类投资(也包括科技股等美国股票)的价格波动更大。% y! C A( v. S: a: M
' f( P6 Y9 _! n" O! P( B1 P7 s但在2022年,央行大幅加息,使其他投资场所(如债券或国库券)更具吸引力 ;
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" u3 T1 L/ O1 ^: G8 P加密货币市场在很大程度上与美国股市同步,尤其是现在。K33研究说比特币与标准普尔500指数之间的30天相关性;P 500指数目前处于2022年10月以来的最高水平。$ |# a3 }( p6 a+ k
4 C7 [0 J$ y( b6 F3 s数字资产似乎比以往任何时候都更容易受到美联储政策的影响,这就是为什么加密货币世界如此关注周三发生的事情。加密货币交易公司Wintermute的场外交易交易员Jake Ostrovski表示,降息将标志着货币政策的“转向”,可能会促进加密货币的发展。
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0 x. m2 l9 S6 k! \他告诉记者:“从历史上看,这样的举措增加了金融体系的流动性,这往往有利于比特币等资产的风险。”解密.
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换句话说,愿意承担风险的投资者越多,他们就越想投入更多的资金,这可能会导致数字资产的价格上涨 ;
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分析师关注的另一件事是降息幅度有多大。市场已经消化了降息的影响,但降息25个基点和50个基点之间的差异可能会产生很大的影响 ;* |+ j: h1 j$ q/ g- @, [# p; A7 L
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FalconX研究主管David Lawant表示:“加密货币与更广泛的风险资产之间的相关性处于18个月以来的最高水平,促使加密货币投资者更加关注这些经济趋势。”解密.
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1 o: z% G. h; h! R他补充说,意外降息50个基点可能会给风险资产带来“意想不到的提振”
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! D# \! X! _& Z9 F' u6 o周一,参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)——国会最大的加密货币批评者之一——加入了两位参议员的行列推在致美联储主席的一封信中,要求降息75个基点。她的理由是,任何不足之处都可能引发经济衰退。
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' o3 L; r: k- M矿业公司比特矿业有限公司首席经济学家杨友伟表示,“降息幅度”可能会显著影响“市场流动性、投资者情绪以及这些资产的相对吸引力”
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8 _5 q5 u$ ^1 | z+ b( m; X6 Q* }但Ostrovski表示,与“长期利率前景”相比,降息的即时规模并不重要,包括降息周期预计持续多久以及委员会对劳动力市场的看法 ;" U: j" U4 V) l. a/ U3 R
; F! {3 T; d1 q% m* W那么,所有人的目光都集中在鲍威尔身上。% O9 O' h: I7 e! U1 X2 Z9 `
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