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[虚拟币交流]
宏观经济学家思考XRP“心理泵”是否可以标记周期顶部(转)
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宏观经济学家Seth探讨了潜在的XRP“心理泵”可能预示着当前加密货币市场周期的峰值的可能性,并将其与历史趋势进行了比较。
, N- J# T) M7 j7 N5 t, @加密货币市场本周经历了异常的价格上涨,尤其是比特币。然而,像XRP这样的山寨币在蓬勃发展的市场中基本落后,未能与比特币一样表现出色 ;
A9 g- g% Z0 ]& `5 C8 J由于本周XRP价格走势引起了持有者和市场观察人士的关注有保证XRP最终会有自己的牛市。与此同时,宏观经济学家赛斯最近强调了XRP市场行为的一个不同寻常的特征。9 U' P; P9 ?# a' u( P r
XRP抛物线走势“标志”市场顶部# Y% L$ s- p6 W- M
在推特上,赛斯共享与一位比特币爱好者的对话内容显示,XRP的表现可能是加密货币市场轨迹的重要指标。根据赛斯的消息来源,XRP的抛物线反弹传统上预示着牛市的顶峰。
3 }; C1 f6 U) w5 Y( N) y这篇文章引发了加密货币社区的猜测,即XRP是否会在当前市场周期的最后阶段经历戏剧性的“心理泵”。: H" I8 u8 u* W& x- h% l$ h4 d
就背景而言,正在进行的加密货币牛市已经持续了一年,分析师预计,在熊市出现之前,它还将持续一年 ;& }5 N' U/ T5 h& D8 V
Seth的观点表明,虽然XRP保持相对停滞在这个牛市期间,它可能会在一段时间内继续表现不佳,然后才开始其备受期待的上升趋势。然而,到那时,牛市可能已经接近尾声。
/ K4 z3 d' _" y7 y" g$ K8 q( w1 Q赛斯的信息引起了一些人的共鸣,他们指出,XRP在看涨期结束时历来表现出强劲的价格飙升。然而,其他人则驳斥了这一观点,认为其他山寨币也可以提出类似的主张。" T9 f l/ @: e5 T, ^4 J* P
值得注意的是,XRP的案例在很大程度上受到了2016/2017年比特币牛市减半后的启发,在此期间XRP看到了戏剧性的推动。$ j) {1 L5 U1 C( _
XRP的戏剧性推动标志着周期顶部
9 a8 ]" }/ d/ U( j b! u' J/ S2016年7月9日比特币减半后,比特币的价格约为600美元。到2017年1月,它已经超过了1000美元。该反弹在2017年全年加强,到12月达到约20000美元的周期峰值。
0 L+ L' M% s3 ^0 s5 L; T: ~相比之下,XRP在此期间的走势相对平稳,在2017年4月之前一直以两个前导零进行交易。XRP确实在下个月取消了另一个零,但在2017年12月之前的几个月里一直在这个范围内挣扎;
8 {+ X: z. }4 }( Y( q% DXRP大幅增长玫瑰从2017年12月12日的0.2522美元上涨至2018年1月4日的历史最高点3.84美元。在这一峰值之后,加密货币市场进入了熊市,XRP尚未完全恢复。
) X/ T2 j" |, F, l" E6 V2020/2021年案例) ?5 ~: ~- f; s4 j
在the2020/2021周期XRP的上涨趋势并不标志着整体牛市的结束。具体来说,XRP的价格在2021年4月达到1.96美元的峰值,大约在同一时间比特币首次达到6万美元 ;4 P' U3 | j8 H4 ~
虽然比特币后来跌至3万美元,但它最终恢复了上升趋势,在2021年11月达到了6.8万美元的周期峰值。然而,XRP并没有从这种复苏中受益,因为它的峰值出现在4月份。一些人认为这是由于2020年12月开始的美国证券交易委员会的诉讼。
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