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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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8 W' }& a+ q1 t) y Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。' |: n* i# I9 X
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。1 p7 D* O4 U$ b5 f6 V5 w6 _: _
- |- n$ M9 V7 K% K 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。0 g4 Z, x( `0 O
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4 e6 x: Z; m- V8 `4 ^$ s' K9 k5 _ 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。
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5 l0 M& m. C# a5 A 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，5 H" m: o. v: Z9 o! {
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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+ w& L6 a; \+ { “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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* O& D, S; Z% U6 l, {6 k, ?5 V框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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# Y7 h8 R$ L3 y& G* A- g, \积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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5 ~; B; V2 }9 j" C1 p/ w 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。4 _/ q) V! f$ X( M6 [; c
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势+ g4 F' I$ b, z6 L: m
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。$ q* u, X3 Q+ S$ e" P1 }
( F5 Z- Y9 C% o5 { 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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6 r+ x+ O" y; c3 r 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，' x$ G4 w- l) X+ _) T8 {3 J6 W
8 }- ~6 w# u0 x( ?" k8 }市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”9 l- z' o# J6 A8 U+ t" Q* F
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