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[lastpost] => 2818494 渣打银行：稳定币流通速度两年翻倍，仍维持2028年市值达2万亿美元预测(转) 1775044015 rainwang
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美国贸易政策的突变正在使金融市场发生调整，这将对经济产生短期的负面影响，然而，过去一周的市场条件不太可能: h- d4 h" V- a6 y! H8 {3 U9 P1 v, J
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3 w0 A! Y1 `. g+ Y& w成为未来四年的常态。特朗普ZF正在实施一系列政策措施，这些政策将对 GDP 增长、通货膨胀和贸易赤字产生不同的影响。* C" \/ M' @) p9 E. A, A6 O' K1 E
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例如，虽然关税可能会减少经济增长并提高通货膨胀（即造成滞涨），某些类型的放松管制可能会提高增长并降低通货膨胀
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（即减少滞涨），最终的结果将取决于白宫在这些领域内实施政策议程的程度。
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* e& i: Z* y5 f8 ^! |3 P 尽管前景存在不确定性，最好的猜测是，美国ZF的政策将在未来 1 至 3 年内导致美元持续疲软和总体高于目标的通胀。
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; G4 B" Q5 H/ J' B关税本身可能会减缓增长，但这种影响可能会部分被减税、放松管制和美元贬值所抵消。如果白宫还积极推行其他促进增长的% F5 ?2 v/ Y, x' ~5 l: V
; u4 _5 r! v& C9 m7 A9 S2 C+ g/ I政策，尽管最初受到关税的冲击，GDP 增长仍可能保持相对良好。无论实际增长是否强劲，历史表明，一段时期内持续的通胀" K0 ?9 u) H5 o. w" f
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压力对比特币和黄金等稀缺大宗商品来说可能是有利的。
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此外，就像 20 世纪 70 年代的黄金一样，比特币如今拥有迅速改善的市场结构 — — 这得到了美国ZF政策变化的支持。
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" L+ I5 a8 ?, E& @2 F0 T" u今年以来，白宫实施了一系列广泛的政策变化，这些变化应该会支持对数字资产行业的投资，包括撤销一系列诉讼，确保资产
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7 Q1 v n; x; F2 q1 a对传统商业银行的适用性，以及允许受监管的机构（如托管人）提供加密货币服务。这反过来又引发了一波并购活动和其他战; [ x7 l" W( h* @9 D+ r
# ?: K( ^' E- ` I& H/ x/ E0 Z略投资。新关税对比特币等数字资产估值是一个短期的不利因素，但特朗普ZF的加密货币特定政策一直支持该行业。综合来6 C# b |0 D; X! X8 |
6 b5 ?0 r# z4 R6 S" `& M$ `1 e看，宏观经济对稀缺大宗商品资产的需求上升和投资者经营环境的改善，可能是未来几年比特币广泛采用的有力组合。
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