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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。8 | i( B3 I0 I% E" l4 s& e5 X+ c9 A8 ^
尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。
) I e5 A& L6 b+ y过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。
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7 I, v3 n2 o4 l1 x* D. v- [; {其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。5 k6 Q) B, @" T A, q" M5 b n
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Adler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:
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6 c% f6 a" y1 m/ l2 S& L3 {“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”0 r- g4 d E* A; Z
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平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。$ t( c' x( [% r( M' P, P5 T
+ Z/ G0 _' O Z6 U6 b* p因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。
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& B8 O6 Z5 ]" |& n6 L( e6 CBTC 图表暗示了什么
0 z2 A8 Y5 {6 U虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。. s7 y s2 A3 m
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首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。$ l/ q2 D" K* z. h' `! J t
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从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。 s; Q- L7 q# |" L% h' x* H4 {$ G
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比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。9 `$ w3 r- `6 j; Y/ _0 o: h
$ Y$ J% N9 r S; X& }当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。$ v8 b" l' Q( n$ I! K5 H
, c; Q, n0 d; _9 X& R- x$ [
最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。4 H$ y8 m$ M: g1 x3 L( h0 O
2 ]9 y7 E7 t/ M* e( a
最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。
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3 x$ U3 g% n! U) w5 Z截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。, Z Z. i+ C, j5 [, N8 W
d, c5 E0 f" L' D; l, L6 r
简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。
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1 B0 L7 H, k& k如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。
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