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[lastpost] => 2805727 比特币和山寨币100倍加密货币回报的时代已经结束(转) 1770810093 人生如赌
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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。7 z5 h; z( ` ^
尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。
3 `, R9 c2 j ]# {& [! _3 P过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。2 V) F2 i1 Y e6 f. @8 R* y# W
7 A1 Z& i9 b4 ~7 \其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。- F5 n1 ~5 P, i" m3 }: h
4 t- z! G2 F% d T; @Adler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:
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! U3 v+ e" {: a& G“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”- [. E& q8 i/ V- v& o; g9 L9 f( u. |
% p2 @3 N3 o( Q平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。5 o/ }) J9 A# |3 ^+ q2 s( ?
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因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。
- D$ D: F* J5 R+ o% e1 N J' v; n) u% p4 }9 g7 |. B1 V/ U
BTC 图表暗示了什么
# P# ~! z) ^# A2 \虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。
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8 F! L; C$ T4 ?( A9 ?, L4 d首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。! I. @! ~" a# H! {, Q8 j& j- t
6 K- N* ]2 [+ R* W: c( I) G从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。
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3 y) p- C9 P( n: s9 s, y比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。
8 T" q# N- \8 b) X/ A
+ n& O! [! H4 a# t当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。
3 G5 ~7 m v$ m) n, z) k( y" C. d9 Y* J9 {9 f3 x, R: ~
最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。
. U# L. {$ q" [* R/ m6 T1 p! G, v+ E j$ u
最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。
3 Q* g' n3 \, `2 Z! p. g
# D/ a, s0 s* F7 v0 ~: g/ ?截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。2 V. a ^7 \, E2 a x0 m+ v
" L0 d9 t/ V4 j7 ~) H* f; f9 j' `简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。5 _" r, s: _/ H, s$ _3 ]. e
( \8 a: l) \4 ~/ X% C1 Y. v3 Q, T
如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。
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