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[虚拟币交流]
宏观 FUD 如何影响比特币并引发“不同”的山寨币季（转）
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最近，在比特币日益占据主导地位的背景下，山寨币一直在苦苦挣扎
* v7 j7 }" m |( w/ r. w: |7 }新型的山寨币季节最终能否扭转比特币的势头？
+ a" H! _2 ?9 e1 B3 L9 j; ]六月历来是一个比特币[BTC]比特币 (BTC.D) 确立了其主导地位，今年也不例外。事实上，BTC.D 已攀升至 65% 以上，创下新的周期高点。. H2 U3 {3 F" [, G3 P8 }+ d. P
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然而，今年地缘ZZ紧张局势又增添了新的变数。通常情况下，人们会预期资本会流入投机性资产，以利用短期波动。然而，BTC.D 却一路走高。* [( h$ B8 j7 i8 Q3 e1 Y
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这是市场的转折点吗？宏观的 FUD 进一步巩固了比特币的避险属性，而这一属性曾经只存在于山寨币?* O* @; Q. x$ Q( m9 ^& ?( R
. T. V1 [8 D( d2 _3 ]8 u随着资本整合至 BTC，山寨季指标下跌% B9 |4 D$ }, O3 ?
要了解比特币和山寨币之间的关系，我们需要退一步来看。
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在 2022 年熊市期间，一系列连锁冲击导致 BTC 暴跌，导致年度净亏损 65%，并以 16,531 美元的价格收盘。) j# h2 F7 r7 D7 Q
. F' Z' s3 E+ O% Q1 r; |有趣的是，同年第二季度以太坊的[ETH]相对于比特币而言，ETH 的表现达到峰值。ETH 吸引了资金轮动，甚至在 8 月中旬引发突破，在此期间表现优于 BTC。& X* R$ b& i/ _: s( Y9 Q
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简而言之，包括美联储大幅加息和 LUNA/UST 崩溃在内的宏观不利因素促使投资者寻求另类资产的对冲，短暂地为以太坊等山寨币带来了优势。
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三年后，形势发生了逆转。3 l' H$ W6 l+ I7 X
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这 altseason指标处于两年来的最低点，山寨币的月度损失达到两位数，而比特币的主导地位已飙升至四年来的最高点——与此同时，宏观压力继续考验牛市的信念。
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发生了什么变化？机构资本.9 R3 ]" }% P8 k& e$ x2 F+ H) V. H
. _: B2 ], V. i8 ~大型投资者如今主导着市场流动。而且，他们对BTC的偏好，将其作为宏观对冲工具和流动性锚，使其主导地位持续上升。1 |7 n. j/ ?0 y) z1 ~8 b
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零售业也开始迎头赶上。随着比特币表现出更强的资本韧性，许多人选择将资金投入BTC，以长期稳定性，而不是追逐高贝塔山寨币以获得短期投机回报。0 ^2 \4 N* N4 Z, U$ B7 X/ x( t
/ `9 {; Z- o) i) W4 V& I" V因此，只要市场保持波动且宏观风险依然存在，山寨币轮换就可能继续处于观望状态。, ]7 i' ]; r* K X
2 w9 H* u+ C4 |6 h山寨币第 2.0 季 – 建立在实用性而非炒作之上
9 z! i6 C3 w# j i$ c我们可能正走向一个截然不同的山寨币季，它不再受“炒作”驱动，而是真正的实用性驱动。这一次，像以太坊这样强大的 Layer 1 链，索拉纳[SOL]，XRP 可能会引领潮流。; N; |8 y. A& a9 i6 m5 v/ E
% B. f& x# H+ E1 D这些网络不仅仅是与比特币竞争。它们正在构建新数字经济的基础，并引领风险加权资产 (RWA)、DePIN 和稳定币等趋势。
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XRP新的稳定币，RLUSD就是一个很好的例子。它已经以 4.28 亿美元的市值跻身前 20 名，并且正在进军价值 2560 亿美元的庞大稳定币市场。
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尽管如此，要让真正的山寨币市场腾飞，市场需要一个像 NFT 或模因币是过去的事了。话虽如此，我们已经看到市场行为发生了明显的转变。" V- f( e# m, E- a! P
4 @' F) @0 Z) D# I9 k在机构资金流动的推动下，比特币的主导地位并未减弱。然而，在表面之下，山寨币正转向现实世界的应用。而且，这种转变最终可能会让局面重新对他们有利。
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