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当前离线
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总在线: 7199 小时
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比特币已实现 24 亿美元的利润和 3.42 亿美元的 ETF 流出暗示卖方压力正在上升。) B6 [7 c8 a, o: |5 p
此轮周期缺乏兴奋情绪和日益增长的去风险行为是否预示着结构性转变?! c! o% l( v0 I* p8 e" M3 J
从历史上看,比特币[BTC]7 月份的损失从未超过 10%,这使得 BTC 交易历史上统计上最具弹性的月份成为 BTC 交易历史上统计上最具弹性的月份。$ m9 k( w3 T* j9 F
4 f7 e `" s' W# L, M+ `然而,尽管BTC交易价格仅比历史高点低5.5%,却未能突破。距离BTC上次突破11.1万美元,已过去40多天。. _! \ a. ~' a4 R) z
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自那以后,我们看到了两次更低的低点和大量的横盘震荡。投资者的耐心现在是否开始消磨殆尽?交易员们不是在逢低买入,而是悄悄地退出市场?( [4 L8 M+ d9 y8 Y/ C( s/ p: T
3 N3 m; r6 l: S& w比特币的韧性月度面临耐心考验
4 i. l# c9 ^1 A# M7 t" }; G有些人可能会说我们还远未到达周期顶峰。
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通常情况下,主要周期顶部与欣快情绪、过度扩张的动量以及垂直价格走势相一致。但至少目前来看,这些因素似乎都不存在。
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然而,裂痕已开始显现。. B6 f7 y9 m# G) u. n
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现货比特币 ETF 曾连续 4 周流入,但于 7 月 1 日出现逆转——记录根据 Farside 的数据,净流出金额为 3.422 亿美元。
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% V' @4 n$ t8 b9 V" G这与 BTC 在 7 月初回调 1.33% 并创下 10.5 万美元的新低相一致。
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# G- [, W& L& i7 c, B1 c1 \但并非只有机构资金流动显示出压力迹象。7 x+ m4 h( l5 N( J
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利润,而不是信念,正在主导这个市场
) D/ l' A0 ~( v据 Glassnode 称,比特币网络已实现利润 surged。% D" C" D( y3 ?8 x' a
! H. X5 `/ J6 p I* g6 月 30 日,BTC 交易量约为 24 亿美元,平均价格为 107,198 美元,创下单日最高纪录获利回吐近一个月内飙升。2 M( r2 C. U. r, U9 W6 a" S/ s2 t
8 h0 d6 r$ ?$ D% f6 z已实现利润的 7 天 SMA 跃升至 15.2 亿美元,远高于 2025 年的平均水平 11.4 亿美元,但仍远低于 2024 年底的 40-50 亿美元峰值。4 h8 C+ C5 \5 c# Q, s8 y4 W
. [: ~) f0 N5 I1 K& B5 T' q这意味着什么?
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9 ~% t& M1 I r: @% q% L6 W据 AMBCrypto 称,越来越多的信号表明,这一周期可能在结构上有所不同,可能会挑战比特币 7 月份的历史弹性表现。
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七月份的行为和结构性利好6 v6 S3 U' D( O' A
没有什么能说明比特币7月份的韧性比2022年的熊市要好。
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+ V" Y4 @: X9 _1 s4 x" ]; d在 6 月份遭受 37.3% 的惨淡下跌之后,BTC 在 7 月份反弹,上涨 16.8%,即使在宏观不确定性最严重的情况下,当月价格仍收于 25,000 美元左右。, Y2 T/ P, G0 A8 a( @9 t
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但这种季节性的强势并不是随机的。
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7 月通常标志着下半年资本轮换的开始,因为机构投资者会重新平衡投资组合并重新进入比特币等风险资产。1 ^. X/ x: _! N( O! U0 L
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随着美联储利率决议、CPI/PCE通胀数据和GDP数据等主要宏观数据已被反映在价格中,不确定性趋于消退。6 D; \6 }/ P2 K6 W& d/ v6 h
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例如,2022 年 7 月,核心通胀率数月来首次放缓,CPI 环比下降 0.6%,引发比特币上涨 17%。
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4 O0 q& b5 \6 P' ~快进到2025年,形势将明显不同。通胀依然坚挺,远高于美联储2%的目标。这种持续的宏观压力正在造成分歧。
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风险资本正在犹豫,比特币的流入正在减少。因此,比特币目前的窄幅波动是开始看起来不太像健康的整合,而更像是局部顶部的开始。$ s: d7 L9 R; g7 @$ _6 p5 p
3 }% Q4 e3 [6 B, A. n+ Y是的,七月份对比特币来说一直很有利——但这一次,数据表明:要谨慎行事。
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当前离线
经验:
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当前离线
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
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总在线: 10090 小时
本月在线: 50 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
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策小分:
总在线: 2818 小时
本月在线: 22 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 19071 小时
本月在线: 130 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 10171 小时
本月在线: 35 小时
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