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[虚拟币交流]
山寨币市值蒸发 3840 亿美元：如果没有比特币轮动，该行业能否复苏？（转）
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山寨币市场在 10 月 7 日遭受了最严重的打击，导致总市值在图表上急剧下降。
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根据 TradingView 上的山寨币市值图表（不包括稳定币），比特币 [BTC]， 和以太坊 [ETH]从峰值到 11 月 21 日，市场总共损失了 3840 亿美元。
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! R0 G8 d) k6 J+ X& N上一次出现大量资金外流是在 2024 年 12 月至 2025 年 4 月期间，持续了四个月，期间市场下跌了 53%。) v& K1 z* j9 }5 K3 p
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当前的经济衰退是否会遵循同样的规律尚不清楚，但 AMBCrypto 分析了可能决定潜在逆转的因素。
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山寨币季节性指数& t% I, v/ G, a# o/ N" l" t! M; j
资本流入市场一直是决定哪些资产或行业大幅上涨的关键因素之一。
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3 o; T! Q- }% }, o此前，这种趋势曾支撑了隐私代币持续数周的看涨前景。类似的模式也可能适用于其他加密货币以及比特币整体。, |1 s8 w8 F/ Q: s1 v1 a& |2 M6 T3 t
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山寨币季节性指数能够反映当前市场的资金轮动情况。目前，该指数显示大部分资金仍然集中在比特币上。# |5 U% N6 T; [0 D
6 O0 ]) h3 |. T7 p当资金重新流入山寨币，指数从 75 点及以上进入图表的上部区域时，山寨币可能会开始上涨。/ X3 }: T" |. s0 E
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根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，上一次确认的山寨币行情发生在 2024 年 12 月 4 日，当时该指数攀升至 87。/ ?2 o& Z. u* p0 y6 @3 r+ z2 X& _
1 _4 x" X% u' p% W0 R1 ~6 {( ] u' p0 t然而，下一步的重大举措仍不确定，Alphractal 数据显示，大量山寨币的价格仍维持在 40-50 的范围内，表明市场将继续保持中性。7 t7 Y" n% x8 _: m: w3 y
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链上活动仍然至关重要
; r& r% ?6 y" r虽然链下资金流动很重要，但了解去中心化应用程序的链上活动仍然至关重要。
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这是通过总锁定价值 (TVL) 来衡量的，它反映了市场中各个协议之间流通的流动性总量。
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7 m7 V/ R5 l+ f/ u) _TVL 的增加表明投资者正在将更多资产锁定到协议中，从而增强了市场信心，支持了看涨前景，并表明了更长期的承诺。
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目前，整体市场已出现小幅反弹，TVL 达到 1190.9 亿美元。
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8 r" \( ]- q$ P" \+ Q5 m% O7 a此外，多个区块链上稳定币供应量的逐步增加表明，许多投资者仍然持观望态度，继续偏爱稳定币而不是山寨币。
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比特币与山寨币的去相关性* P& l/ R( v* n( U% F
比特币与山寨币之间的相关性是评估山寨币反弹可能性的重要指标。5 ]5 T- i* Y# m, S
7 t3 H6 Z0 L3 ^1 r: L当比特币和山寨币的走势相似时，这表明资金正在同时流入或流出这两个领域。
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对于持续的加密货币上涨行情而言，随着市场趋势的上升，一定程度的去相关性往往是必要的。
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0 J: G, c: ?- ]9 D+ F, Q0 }这意味着当山寨币价格上涨时，比特币的上涨速度要么放缓，要么走势相反。这种现象证实了投资者关注点正在转向山寨币。
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从图表上可以清楚地看出，在 8 月 25 日至 10 月 10 日期间，山寨币（绿色标记）的资金流入量比比特币（蓝色标记）更为强劲。7 {* w& N' q1 S0 {" @
2 j L0 \2 i" k. d最后想说的话
( M9 L/ N' q/ I! N, p2 _目前，山寨币已进入中性阶段，大多数山寨币的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 均在 40-50 的范围内。
" K9 D( w1 H1 m经历了动荡的十月份之后，山寨币市场遭受了最严重的打击之一。
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