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赛前分析:[欧国杯]芬兰 vs 荷兰
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北京时间本周三(09月07日)凌晨01点00分，欧洲杯预选赛E组将进行一场比赛，小组第一的荷兰做客对阵已经出线无望的芬兰。2 c) D; y& f' @/ N, P( V
1 V; j4 S, g7 y9 @/ D欧赔
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6 c: x# @8 q9 {2 f! @5 F( N- u澳门：8.50 5.00 1.25
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2 ^% Z6 ]3 A) i S# C立博：10.00 5.50 1.28
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bet365：9.00 5.00 1.338 E! W2 L, Q4 E, _, D
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除了bet365、易胜博等公司的荷兰胜赔和威廉相差过大外，欧赔看起来还是比较正常的。现在bet365和易胜博荷兰胜赔都是1.33，而威廉只有1.22，两者相差了0.11。这本来就是个不小的差距，本场荷兰胜赔本来就非常低，更放大了这一差距，如果保持这样的赔率到终场，荷兰是有危险的。/ I! E' X$ n f( } P; h
, U0 `( D; O6 w* p/ @4 b亚盘
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澳门：0.98 -1/-1.5 0.845 F! x4 G2 \: U9 S
9 z& W9 r( \! w" a- [% H立博：1.02 -1/-1.5 0.84- }& O5 |) f" a$ y! @; v
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bet365：1.025 -1/-1.5 0.825
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( I6 t0 j$ V0 s) ^) p亚盘初盘都是荷兰让球半，而现在都是荷兰让一球/球半，各公司都退了盘。这场荷兰必然是热门，退盘如果上盘保持低水还能理解为是减少上盘赔付，但退盘后上盘还升了水，这就不能理解了。以现在的盘口来看，荷兰最好的情况就是赢球输盘。
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对战记录
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两队在历史上交战过12次，芬兰队1胜2平9负处于绝对下风，进14球失32球；其中两队在欧洲杯预选赛中交战过5场，芬兰队1平4负未有胜绩处于劣势，进4球失12球。首回合交锋，荷兰主场仅2-1小胜。6 f. Q* F; E1 n; \9 Y5 E8 }6 u' `7 Q p$ |
) d+ t7 U! \8 D/ t出线形势9 i6 p: `4 U4 s, Y, f5 D4 A( {
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荷兰全胜21分遥遥领先，瑞典、匈牙利同积15分瑞典比匈牙利少赛一场，9分的芬兰、6分的摩尔多瓦和0分的圣马力诺是打酱油。
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( k% C' m: N( t$ L7 l# U( i由于瑞典本轮是打圣马力诺3分在握，因为荷兰本轮赢球也还是领先第二名6分，在都还剩下2场的情况下理论上荷兰还没有出线，不过这也只是理论上。匈牙利尽管和瑞典同分，但形势不妙，不仅比瑞典多赛一场且对战胜负处于劣势，这要求他们必须积分超过瑞典才行，还好和荷兰的比赛已经踢完。瑞典剩下的对手是圣马力诺、芬兰和荷兰，匈牙利想要出线，就要期待瑞典在对芬兰、荷兰时都不胜。$ r; h, `4 ~! M: v8 I, I7 ]+ Q
2 S5 M: V" \* C% n. Q上周末比赛简介# m }1 F8 K* ?
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荷兰上周末11-0大胜圣马力诺，这场胜利被大加赞赏，但个人认为这不算什么，荷兰大比分赢下圣马力诺，不能说明状态有多好只能说明态度比较认真，要知道同组的瑞典打圣马力诺，在34分钟被罚下一人10打11还是能6-0大胜。圣马力诺和荷兰的差距实在是太大了。5 p/ d6 p$ l6 r9 \2 z1 Y
8 d7 U- N# r. f1 e o芬兰上周末4-1击败摩尔多瓦，哈伊莱宁梅开二度，福赛尔打入点球，对方再送了一个乌龙。芬兰小组赛的9分全都是在圣马力诺和摩尔多瓦两支鱼腩身上取得，碰到其他对手就是输球。4 y; f7 N$ S8 i7 m9 ?/ Z
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胜负关键8 h( `# p0 T+ N% o. H
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6 i% N1 V% G5 n) o3 q. }对荷兰大部分球员来说，取得小组第一不成问题、且周末还有联赛的情况下，不分点心是不可能的，这在主观上给芬兰制造了一些爆冷的机会。0 X9 V9 ?; n% P
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从人员上来说，荷兰缺少有伤的罗本、范德法特和德容，并不能以最强阵容出击，上周末对圣马力诺排出的三叉戟是库伊特、亨特拉尔和范佩西，库伊特是另类边锋勤恳有余但灵性不足、亨特拉尔是标准的射手需要队友喂球，而范佩西技术能力出色但踢球风格比较独，这个三叉戟的攻击力对圣马力诺是很强，但并不能用这场来判断，碰到职业化的芬兰，能表现出什么样的水准这就是未知数了。 |
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