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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
* c4 A: D$ e0 U* ?! t. f3 `& U& r# y
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率& f4 d; F* J7 }$ }+ x" F4 I
- @+ I4 M1 D" l; B, o- h. V
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
' b4 G0 G6 B) n2 a* n9 Z- {( e" e- D/ u' S( M2 g" A
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
' k" w1 p1 a( @( f A& W" Z" \7 b& \
. T& r- q8 ~7 M5 q& `1 \很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?5 J, t& \5 o; D1 C& ?8 \0 y; p
{, V. i$ ?/ X! L8 M% k0 q/ v# p
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!) u4 P1 Y& ^$ t. S- y! F; N: r9 w
# m# j3 `0 j- b& ]. r/ g7 X
X) P* K$ a! C2 d! y. B ~+ \以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
: n; T& m2 |4 f6 Y$ n2 o) E( B" F6 e) d! ], `- B6 I
% D3 l3 R; F' ~9 ]1 J盈利可能性
8 T v3 R2 f. |7 {! F4 ], b1 `) R& i- y* Z% ^8 d: C( h
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值) B& e: J* x1 g {+ m5 J) T
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
9 [( o2 T9 W2 @5 E* N4 w& b) r5 ~( j; e: y$ w; @+ e! J, U, }
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?- n4 X( o7 _7 h
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 ! u# D0 {6 A$ b7 m6 H
7 R; K: s. l- W; h0 S. x D$ a正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
% w2 K" W( z$ r: ~/ t% j5 y- e$ m% O) [3 }0 v5 {" u
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
' v K, y+ e' G. S0 B4 w; l60%的机会你会一无所有3 x) T3 O6 _! x2 k1 r4 H+ M; j' O
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
# ]0 |& @( N/ q+ u/ d; D, h由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。2 G9 G4 L3 {# w) K
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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l4 r; N: C7 W! y1 U基于增值的投注" l! @0 g" h- A/ j* l' W7 _8 E0 j
, | i* |1 z+ C) O1 O5 Y' Z8 W8 `凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。8 g6 K9 c6 b; u# | r6 e
! \6 X# B% E6 I8 \: F公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)% H% k* b9 i% P# }1 K3 d
3 K% M [1 T% L& a! PA=博彩资金
* E; v2 R" r3 n, s$ X0 MP=获胜机会$ I8 G8 w. W5 |$ N
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)0 h' \5 e5 H5 [7 v; k3 v- j
2 C9 Q) Z Q9 m首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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3 K/ d$ x% g+ G* C好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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$ }& R1 q1 r" m8 C1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
+ E& \+ e' K4 @; f& Z
+ D' U/ Q7 b5 m9 K6 ~4 [结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢- s% d" l! Z* n( t" O/ _
$ i& u8 `" [! P
2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)% W- b* `" d$ L& u8 g# l' Z2 B
/ K, G( R' V' q4 LA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
( y) P7 i: U1 G* k! a8 ?. ~, G$ W* g. Z1 |3 c& \( O# m* \# [6 {- Y
A=0.1) U! @% j8 g" P4 @- ~2 k
% J/ e( m& V, r; ]0 D$ z2 F6 G ~结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
$ ]; u. ^% x! Z$ @: F" H9 X' x/ Z& C
( q% [' Y% B1 e$ `4 k5 e1 L3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
; [# _# y9 b0 z C& \2 ?
. [; R5 S( \+ f/ ~9 H) f2 ?" ^* ZA= -0.2 : G% t. S/ H0 `. f" C2 W
; ^4 p3 O# z# U: c
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
# c; r# W6 Z7 \% z3 z1 W
: `) V t* x* K/ F& a! ]& L: T第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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