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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 ; E  t) [1 Z6 d: S

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  N  U  |, o- X: x/ R- G只跟踪一个联赛
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0 z; J) O0 ~3 s7 g0 r7 h全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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, K/ c+ w6 K8 S! h4 k7 D三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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% q: u& e8 Z9 H& W8 `# C: p偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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  X/ \0 z5 W8 U( ~. X) Y方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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+ P5 g+ w4 x1 x然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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! W3 t+ A5 e5 u) Q! }' u$ @. t) U就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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! o2 c8 O# x, Z7 z' q9 o当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目" J! n% r' s' ~" K
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6 h& m& c, R* A  r* t/ ?7 e* p* r. b4 n' a
亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
5 E+ \6 X, B4 c
. I, l8 v* i4 q" A, _, U但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。1 w" X/ |, C& l1 k

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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。3 W' p% H" c2 o% D/ U, ]$ V
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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( ]7 W3 t% \/ F# k但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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5 s8 w$ k, z* N$ C9 Z* _这比买国债存银行合算。; m6 n% O7 S6 }- s. o% h
+ X0 i" h9 S& z6 }% H
在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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) x6 i; j' |9 O7 R放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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1 n& [1 e. a: |  I7 R  u$ o就是回避了大的亏损，
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: y1 m. s( R/ V, T8 ]8 c: [8 o% N大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，: V# X7 r8 M4 Q6 H

- y8 p7 l& }' e& A) t+ ?% v: e" S回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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