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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 : ~# B6 }& `$ [# {' V

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3 f& z- {+ ?! i6 O# D! O" Z只跟踪一个联赛! n7 ?3 {- O2 s" m

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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔2 P$ Z1 x- `/ E7 |

: z! }8 e6 X' F3 ]% Y) Q& t三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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: [  ?" \. M, I, f! G9 V; d偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）0 ], t$ M+ y2 \) V

! r" S( L7 l, Z& \然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱/ }. T$ C  Q' E
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，# Y* ?! Z3 O' c) U5 ~' Q" P. r2 s
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，& \3 @/ I8 _9 I' m% q9 D
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。' ?( |8 V: `2 T+ x6 {. ~2 s2 I3 Y
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" E" x$ g. w& u! p5 E$ u理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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6 j0 f+ \/ \: d' d8 C5 Z* v排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，& u7 g+ ~# u1 H' r6 A
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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) i9 A$ ]7 y3 c5 Y' I在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，( r& P4 e" J& c1 f  }: r/ |
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。, d* Y; l# _, [
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  x' Y# \4 r( }9 g! `3 [; A$ t常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，# f  h+ {: _7 \! U  {/ w& ~$ [

2 `: |5 g# Y9 F0 Y就是回避了大的亏损，9 C2 j2 E5 M. m, E( ~4 O7 H' \

) d) Y( p. P# b/ K大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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8 p0 S, c% s, i5 W1 G4 X4 P回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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