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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 4 E( P' N6 W; U+ ^; B
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只跟踪一个联赛
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔3 K$ B! k5 s' Z0 S% L" z% F
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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& Q; ~* ?$ O" A, b# `偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。9 g, y0 D4 Q. B8 K1 p* ^. \& s

* y: U' |" F9 u- L, ?方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）5 N! l# x- h( u( Y9 A" a$ l8 z
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱8 P' O; U% a6 k) f
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
! N5 g6 Y  n( h8 f7 `$ U2 W/ h5 R+ e  F( Q! Z5 N+ O, E# a0 z
但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。, C& M- \4 K3 e
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5 i% Q/ B* }; |- H) _: H理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。) v" r% r  Q- [' x# F
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，* G, x) f9 G' V& E- J% N: v
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这比买国债存银行合算。! ~& e) o# C# o5 W, w  r
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，3 s; H% o$ T4 C
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。/ z3 D4 q! A2 M5 l8 Q) K% E/ d
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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) I; j0 E5 ?  O3 Y放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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5 H7 ]: A! `8 \' s; X8 h就是回避了大的亏损，
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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- t+ N5 G* f5 H% X' {$ f) C6 u) o回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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