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[真人] 求教百家乐优势概率和返水极限问题
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1#
本帖最后由 DC老兵 于 2013-5-22 11:21 编辑 5 i1 P6 c. b+ S: `
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刚和一个朋友聊到优势问题
- y8 s9 c$ x% `0 z正常的算法是8 l8 {, g' I6 R
庄家(Banker) 403,095,751,234,560 45.87% 1.06% * B/ [8 M  B% J$ _1 y8 ]
闲家(Player) 392,220,492,728,832 44.63% 1.24%
) I- D- ^  o+ P3 ?1 e: s% E- D$ C: U和局(Tie) 83,552,962,932,288 9.51% 14.44% / \/ O8 d* O  ]5 \- \* @
问题一:若永远不下“和局”,那么庄闲的优势如何计算,因为庄闲情况是存在的,只是不下注而已
9 z. w0 t1 A+ f1 Y* D问题二:极限返水问题,若永远不下“和局”的话返水达到多少时庄家优势为0& ~* @7 f  i+ o( L
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我的的粗略算法是( B) _& V5 M" z2 A# J- j& l
每次下100元,下两次,从概率看庄闲各中一次,共下注200元,被抽水5元,收195元,若返水1%的话加2元,实收197元,赔率是0.985(197除以200)- Z5 c) e8 V/ k  v
这是粗算法,其实按精算法看出庄的概率大些,所以不能平分,  z5 t) ^) H9 b" x5 z% V
这样算的话返水达到2%都不算高,
! P9 s5 S! M& H( a6 p但另一个朋友的算法不是这样,带有些精算,讨论中
; @1 ~1 C/ B3 i$ r% {大家也帮帮下
& }. i: ]: _! w* U1 t& w% b
9 g1 b6 q6 {% F- q问题一:若永远不下“和局”,那么庄闲的优势如何计算,因为庄闲情况是存在的,只是不下注而已4 r/ M: r1 [' j. t+ ]! K  U9 K
问题二:极限返水问题,若永远不下“和局”的话返水达到多少时庄家优势为0
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( H! n+ m: D; k8 k" x8副牌, 押玩家0 A8 ?# e9 [0 n( d3 w

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第一,若不算和局,开庄几率百分之50.68,开闲几率百分之49.32, ^. T/ w1 ~0 a+ y" C: x
第二,庄家反水给到1.265的时候,庄家优势为0
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第一,若不算和局,开庄几率百分之50.68,开闲几率百分之49.32
. R1 x6 ?+ f( m. i/ s第二,庄家反水给到1.265的时候,庄家优势为 ...
4 X( [9 S: {# ?; X8 ~acml1986 发表于 2013-5-22 11:23
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! B) j1 E% R6 G  y$ w# Q6 \    说的比较靠普 楼主都没算输掉的反水
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回复 3# 艾欧里亚
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    扫扫盲,现在网赌公司各项优惠加起来,玩家早就正收益了
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
回复 4# acml1986
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:lol 正收益也难挡偶尔一次冲动啊
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回复 5# 艾欧里亚
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7 i6 y6 S3 N7 H+ X7 \    正收益也是零点几的微弱优势嘛,冲动带来的负收益是百分之几千几万了,哈哈
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回复 6# acml1986 : x  Z( u0 D# [6 f5 `

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    战胜DC看来是比登天还难了,不如家当全弄进去 梭哈两手 告老还乡得了:lol
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回复 7# 艾欧里亚
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    是啊,破了人性还要破数学概率,这两样破其中一项都难比登天,更何况还要同时破两项,拿家当梭哈两把赌报应绝对是玩百家乐最好的打法
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9#
我的精算法是
) ~8 ^1 c% i: s8 A第一步得出三者的概率:" K* \8 x# h) b1 O
出庄0.4585970 o9 ~% v' m/ B# {/ N6 K/ z
出闲0.446247
$ ?4 I; p! Z& t; w出和0.095156
7 T: p9 f  Q# p+ ?" u, D. V第二步去掉和局,把庄闲换算成100%,庄闲丙者加起来100%
7 C6 I. X8 x( r6 b1 K' P庄+闲=0.904844
! B! w- V" C/ Q# _) U2 y" m换算成100%& L9 v( v( K7 i8 Y& P
庄的概率是0.458597/0.904844=0.506824=50.6824%
! Z  ?7 J& H6 K闲的概率是0.446247/0.904844=0.493176=49.3176%
, R% F# P1 q! |# x- K% j& _押庄家时的优势是. f" V9 z! ?- A2 @
50.6824%*0.95(抽水金)=48.1482%. v: I3 p+ a% v
闲-49.3176%7 {& i+ \0 ~2 m
两者相加玩家优势-1.1694%8 b) [9 F  b% p; O3 z9 X& [, T
押庄家时的优势是-1.3648%
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回复 9# DC老兵
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    一般来说,就是全押庄,负收益是1.17,全押闲,负收益是1.36
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回复  DC老兵 3 Y- i7 t; e6 |+ g1 X# y
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    一般来说,就是全押庄,负收益是1.17,全押闲,负收益是1.36
; {9 N# K1 E; u1 i. t' T& uacml1986 发表于 2013-5-22 12:19
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4 g# J) h3 g' {; z/ R    谢谢
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回复 11# DC老兵
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    不用谢,还有撒概率方面的问题没,你现在应该看到,反水如果达到2,是多么大的正收益
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13#
楼主数学挺好啊
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谢谢楼主 的分享
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回复 7# 艾欧里亚
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! Q# \1 ~# ]8 ~3 C4 V7 e   这个是完胜庄家的唯一办法 但是有个前提 就是梭哈赢了 这辈子都不再玩了~
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17#
第一,若不算和局,开庄几率百分之50.68,开闲几率百分之49.32
, r4 G5 q, Y, J, E第二,庄家反水给到1.265的时候,庄家优势为 ...
/ q# N- {0 N+ F4 E# k; G4 @acml1986 发表于 2013-5-22 11:23
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    说的太对了
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