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[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
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一、我们先假设一个抽样数W={W(ij)|i,j∈N}, W(ij)就是比赛的进球结果,i,j分别表示主客队的进球数。0 U; V+ S9 U8 O
那么,平局、主胜、客胜就有以下表达式:" G9 a9 m, R5 F3 {
A(d) = {W(ij)|i=j, i∈N, j∈N}- \$ N4 B3 ^) f* |/ F( B& {1 j0 `
A(h) = {W(ij)|i>j, i∈N, j∈N}
! [- D! w1 \8 T: I2 XA(a) = {W(ij)|i 接着我们引入一个符号P(i)表示平胜负的概率,P(Ai)∈[0,1]:
" Z0 l, N* H* EP(i)=P(Ai), i∈{0, 1, 2}: K9 q0 G' t/ g# u
二、首先来说说平手盘(即0:0Handicaps或我们经常在国外上看到的(Moneyline)
0 P) j! {" Q) \4 w4 }* a假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:
0 j0 q- i9 K' _" [{b(h) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生+ `" f* q, x( W' `& Q8 a! L) l% P. [4 n
R(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
& T$ g2 S3 c+ t/ S& Y% \{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生; P/ C. k* r" \9 n: a. Z
以及: Q8 n; }; \7 f+ ^9 A+ C* b
{b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生9 e. s4 f( s4 o1 l% }7 [ d
R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
: E2 q v& _/ h/ D/ m{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
2 b' }7 U4 p" c. A如果O(h)表示平手盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示平手盘下的客队赔率
' |) q& E( G6 j' Q' J1 j- g( [那么投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
$ y5 J! I8 y+ I b/ c3 CE[R(1)]=P(d)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]5 L/ g2 l1 b. w* E5 D! Z. b5 y# h
E[R(2)]=P(d)*b(a)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]
2 z' t, x$ k) H: P1 h按照真实赔率(暂不包含庄家优势),我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等: Y" _3 ?, S- m2 b9 @2 u9 S1 g
E[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]=b(h). @" x; _- f: P3 m9 x; {
P(d)+p(h)O(h)=1
, ~1 T7 N$ F5 U* @O(h)=(1-P(d))/P(h)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算主队赔率的公式/ H6 r& q0 {; N1 Z9 Q, @# e: W/ k" u
E[R(2)]=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]=b(a)
% F( D1 h( k1 y: x: o6 Y1 yP(d)+p(a)O(a)=1
4 }- t( R5 _; T4 y0 Q: Y. SO(a)=(1-P(d))/P(a)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算客队赔率的公式
' \) w# `% a2 u2 J( b在极端情况下,可以认为平手盘亚洲赔率(或moneyline),就是在不发生平局结果条件下(就是公式中P(d)=0),主胜客胜概率的倒数4 t( f: @9 _, `; [1 O
三、半球盘的计算描述
0 U# U9 A8 m) o i1 y, d" h X$ Q+ |接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受半球(1/2:0 Handicaps的情况)! U/ q' P1 f+ S* t
还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:- s( }3 h" r- Y1 f" R+ X
{O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(d)结果发生0 D9 Z4 n6 H2 |8 }- w2 m2 w
R(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生+ ~( P% K& F" m+ L5 Y' j _
{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生- |7 G6 W4 Q# N9 z/ y% K+ x6 Y! \
以及
/ _# N/ e. I3 R5 @, g X( E{0 , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生" H! |& x. x, S1 q3 s# q A- T) V2 p
R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生3 c: v5 j S( ~* e# P& X$ Z: |
{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
/ `! u+ V- e7 K: `2 {如果O(h)表示受半球盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示客队赔率
/ ^0 K$ t" _* G% X! p# o投注主客的期望回报总数分别为+ T! z( [5 g$ g4 c) F7 W7 K) Q3 I
E[R(1)]=P(d)*O(h)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]2 h. h/ [2 s% e& g1 c
E[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)
a0 V, G5 W( }" r2 {* \假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等
, w4 H0 h" W# C( F. p, A$ C/ LE[R(1)]=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=b(h)
) p$ v2 h8 y* z; J) LO(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=1
: x8 q5 x! j, ^# O( a2 j3 k @O(h)=1/[P(d)+p(h)]
6 V2 s1 B1 _9 N* M9 UE[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)5 C \# q% G6 H6 I- p) r% w4 s
P(a)*O(a)=1; E! |! J6 L( `+ o* h" i
O(a)=1/P(a)" {" j) i; |5 {1 E' | c Y
同样道理可以计算让半球(0:1/2 Handicaps)的亚洲盘赔率
" T( B9 `" A9 c. eO(h)=1/p(h)& D* o4 r$ [* p A/ ^
O(a)=1/[P(d)+p(a)]
% G! [' i% c" g* ]9 o% }! t# z四、平半球盘的计算描述
6 v$ A, Y. ?, }. p: c3 @这个稍复杂一点
2 \! e6 b& t2 D7 R4 V* A& d# n) c接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受平半球(1/4:0 Handicaps的情况)
: u1 p0 ^4 q M S. f$ O8 M6 e还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额计算:
2 K. ?( s9 }+ {{[O(h)+1]/2×b(h), 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
4 r# v: B! u9 Q' mR(1)={O(h)*b(h), 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
) `7 m* Y) e/ W1 `{0, 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生7 G F2 m4 |/ N( _
以及" R% k1 p& k& q: w1 g8 R X6 }
{1/2×b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
5 W4 m7 O+ P3 `3 {R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生9 I, I6 v5 S7 S0 m& G7 ?$ d0 R6 Z
{O(a)*b(a), 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
" l$ {3 m& M9 R4 p5 |5 @投注主客的期望回报总数分别为8 n; V' n. x8 {' R
E[R(1)]=P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}×b(h)+P(h)×O(h)×b(h)=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))' }+ n- [7 _* w& {9 G) I/ w' I' m
E[R(2)]=1/2×b(a)×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]
% H j& i m, A和上面计算过程相似,得出:/ S$ X0 {3 _5 H" S: T
E[R(1)]=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))=b(h)3 l a' M5 R( }' K
P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h)=10 _/ E2 d8 E9 [1 p) Y
O(h)*[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]+1/2*P(d)=1
2 i9 u% `. \( U& Z, _6 ZO(h)=[1-1/2*P(d)]/[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(h))4 C0 V/ v m; `9 V2 G& X9 z! U
E[R(2)]=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]=b(a)
8 Y' R0 T; N3 A) w* c0 C1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)=14 z& q) R6 T+ Q9 S4 Y- z
O(a)=[1-1/2×P(d)]/P(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(a)
# _ d" b# u) D* _: `1 h同样主队让平半就分别是
1 D2 n$ I1 D' O# a+ Z8 A; ]O(h)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(h)# I8 c, F3 s, d* H4 k, e) @& }
O(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(a))
: Y' Q4 o# P! S/ k' R! ~+ w$ m五、一球、两球等整数盘(这里先暂时说主队让1球的情况,0:1,Handicaps,其它可以类推的)$ R( N( Q" O, f! g! M" t& _
可以采用类似公式,在(一)中我们分别用A(d)、A(h)、A(a)描述平局、主胜、客胜事件的发生。现在改用另外的符号代替,如B(d)、B(h)、B(a),同时除了平、胜、负概率P(i)(i=d,h,a)外,还需要引入一个一个概率值P(hX)来代表主队赢一球(X=1)、二球(X=2)...的概率,下面来进行演算' K" N8 W" V- A) ~! m' H
B(d) = {W(ij)|i=j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}
7 H% ?7 @) g6 \B(h) = {W(ij)|i>j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}2 i9 B2 W# W$ }5 h
B(a) = {W(ij)|i i,j分别表示主客队的进球数,k代表让球数
9 U: s' t @; I+ F接着,假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:
+ r; Z1 r6 Y( s" ^+ J. ~{b(h)*O(h) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生
# m2 Z1 N" ^+ C3 t* ^; GR(1)={b(h)-O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的B(h)结果发生
8 X( d% i8 O; X9 S: _{0 , 即上面所述的B(a)结果发生9 A s+ k2 o- W' j
以及' ^+ j' p! o+ b& X
{b(a) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生
/ H3 e9 k+ p. s0 wR(2)={0, 即上面所述的B(h)结果发生8 X# y* o3 V! `! S/ |, X* S+ R+ {
{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的B(a)结果发生0 y& B, z4 B v% e* t
投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
! c" R/ `0 `2 b/ w' FE[R(1)]=P(h)*b(h)*O(h)+P(h1)*(b(h)-O(h)*b(h))=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]/ E# A2 F& N- b) K/ Y
E[R(2)]=P(h1)*b(a)+(1-P(h))*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))
; }5 X- ?+ I! S; `8 c. L" t' y假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等% }3 H) h% \2 O2 G6 B* L4 {- }
E[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]=b(h)# \# j, t3 P. N) B4 l$ H+ U
P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)=1
: r X6 |7 `8 l2 w" e) c( s( @$ dO(h)*(P(h)-P(h1))=1-P(h1)
9 ?# ^8 B, j8 j9 m5 z' [O(h)=(1-P(h1))/(P(h)-P(h1)). Y( `1 |( h( ~+ h* g- `
E[R(2)]=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))=b(a)8 c D/ w* v% Y! _. Y! [5 ~( Z: A
P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a)=1# Z; B& ?5 f+ R& t& W* q
O(a)*(1-P(h))=1-P(h1)
& A$ k" A- K' g @* [& J1 f7 UO(a)=(1-P(h1))/(1-P(h))1 R. {8 d# G7 y0 o
以上(五)部分是让一球的情况,让两球以上整数盘和反过来受让整数盘是可以同样演算的。
# ?% Y* l, b8 T* U, Y7 h+ X1 W% [简单小结一球或整数盘,其实理论的演算过程不难,但是如何准确计算赢整数球的概率(P(hi)就是其中的难点,这已经涉及到如何用相对动态实力差或球差来计算各种赢球概率(是指赢1、2、3...球的概率,也可以说是赢球比分概率)的问题,使用自己数据模型里的数据来计算。 |
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