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[体育菠菜心得方法] 亚洲让球盘的数学描述
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一、我们先假设一个抽样数W={W(ij)|i,j∈N}, W(ij)就是比赛的进球结果,i,j分别表示主客队的进球数。
4 O% F/ r& F1 _9 r2 J那么,平局、主胜、客胜就有以下表达式:
0 j& I4 M% E7 {' RA(d) = {W(ij)|i=j, i∈N, j∈N}
& D% d6 |6 J" g3 o9 ^( }A(h) = {W(ij)|i>j, i∈N, j∈N}( J, N- r: l# ]7 z. I' T7 u% I
A(a) = {W(ij)|i 接着我们引入一个符号P(i)表示平胜负的概率,P(Ai)∈[0,1]:
; W  x# Y2 i8 u( |9 C, XP(i)=P(Ai), i∈{0, 1, 2}! g. T9 T2 f1 N8 a
二、首先来说说平手盘(即0:0Handicaps或我们经常在国外上看到的(Moneyline)
5 Z, x9 h$ T4 D2 ]7 Q: N假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:1 g! T9 I# O) ]( j- m
{b(h) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
6 J9 X' ?5 V2 iR(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生( v( @/ G4 Z  V/ D6 G4 g1 D
{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
; ^1 S% _4 j0 D7 l以及
7 g4 z. N- s. i* O0 ~{b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生& L' H. S0 Y) K& h/ f" h) M- y
R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生& m  @$ I: r" V+ T! Y% U
{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
; ?7 t: Q0 q6 R. C1 K' X: R$ b如果O(h)表示平手盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示平手盘下的客队赔率* k# T1 s1 i: e2 _
那么投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
% h) f) E1 t( N# a. ]) S. [0 j" y# hE[R(1)]=P(d)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]9 i2 P3 O9 q7 I' V) w; c; ?
E[R(2)]=P(d)*b(a)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]9 ~) [" W- A9 o7 j( f! U
按照真实赔率(暂不包含庄家优势),我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等
/ z  Q! h) O. e/ GE[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]=b(h)
+ E; L. e8 l' lP(d)+p(h)O(h)=1( x8 x, l  Y0 f8 k
O(h)=(1-P(d))/P(h)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算主队赔率的公式  m  C+ \# F* L, P1 `' Z  _6 B
E[R(2)]=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]=b(a)
/ p: M1 }9 D, a4 e% O! o2 u* c. WP(d)+p(a)O(a)=1
2 q' f5 c. {. m# y  V: |O(a)=(1-P(d))/P(a)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算客队赔率的公式! V2 u! |7 _7 M
在极端情况下,可以认为平手盘亚洲赔率(或moneyline),就是在不发生平局结果条件下(就是公式中P(d)=0),主胜客胜概率的倒数, l7 D% e! p2 h+ R: q" M7 a
三、半球盘的计算描述8 u9 n+ ?# n# T2 O. u( l& e! ~
接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受半球(1/2:0 Handicaps的情况)
& R" m3 ^+ I& e: v; h. O还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:
2 W' T0 k8 d. ^% \: J{O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(d)结果发生$ r$ y- J. V: V- d8 J
R(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生/ k7 d) H2 i3 V) }- |* @
{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
  r8 b) ?, x" e以及' q0 [3 g8 T, O2 |; X
{0 , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
, ]$ |$ a) k( X% r- ZR(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
8 R: K. q# B/ v9 v$ a- o$ U{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生5 Q) \& {! N5 ]! V" X8 D' B1 w+ J
如果O(h)表示受半球盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示客队赔率2 N# @. Y4 m1 j9 v, S
投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
) [6 a& e- \3 z, P. _6 Z' m/ ]- }E[R(1)]=P(d)*O(h)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]
' Q5 t4 ~$ P' B& t8 Y" e! YE[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)! ~7 p1 C8 s% p# B+ Y5 W% j
假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等; W2 y) L1 E6 y
E[R(1)]=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=b(h)
  X6 H! i( F$ W, I* uO(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=1+ j; W. z( X1 W1 X6 N2 t
O(h)=1/[P(d)+p(h)]
, a1 q, `  }9 I$ d- t: c; @% y4 D5 sE[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)- }9 o  N! h5 W
P(a)*O(a)=1
( a8 l$ S3 \' J- U# Q8 PO(a)=1/P(a)& q  p. G) v) H, q' V
同样道理可以计算让半球(0:1/2 Handicaps)的亚洲盘赔率+ X2 {( ?8 J. Y$ t6 e
O(h)=1/p(h)
$ O$ d+ o0 k9 B) W/ v' U; ?O(a)=1/[P(d)+p(a)]. I- h9 O0 _( T
四、平半球盘的计算描述
, R. _2 ^) F2 {3 p, p5 m4 ]这个稍复杂一点
3 q/ A: {5 u2 q! f接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受平半球(1/4:0 Handicaps的情况)
, U- ], q( R0 N6 u; J, C; V还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额计算:0 g& z+ H' L1 K0 H; Q7 \6 A6 H8 b- ?
{[O(h)+1]/2×b(h), 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
- ~) C/ h) \# x- f$ i' z8 k. eR(1)={O(h)*b(h), 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
5 y# L+ ~  l3 Q{0, 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生! h. |2 d  O* Q4 P" o, R
以及
8 }5 M4 M3 V9 C. c, b: Z* y{1/2×b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生% g! N- X& O0 R2 y! W
R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
$ S7 ~& [2 J5 ^2 ?# z5 }{O(a)*b(a), 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生) h  g" `/ _/ Z. |5 `0 g
投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
# z% u7 e/ {! t. H& I5 pE[R(1)]=P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}×b(h)+P(h)×O(h)×b(h)=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))& x7 r$ Z  }' K+ q
E[R(2)]=1/2×b(a)×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]+ J/ ~; S8 h# i+ B2 h5 N+ |
和上面计算过程相似,得出:( J4 G! S+ F3 b8 M, _( U
E[R(1)]=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))=b(h)
4 H7 U; W0 ~1 W- [$ vP(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h)=1
! R6 Y; e6 I2 R1 kO(h)*[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]+1/2*P(d)=1
5 M, `" R) F" ~5 N8 x8 |  n3 M1 vO(h)=[1-1/2*P(d)]/[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(h))
2 h1 C1 X$ D4 L! N1 H4 e2 x: z' \' s# zE[R(2)]=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]=b(a)! t) \& M2 m; v4 b* p
1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)=13 \) m* R, S8 W
O(a)=[1-1/2×P(d)]/P(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(a)
+ h) N8 A1 V9 e+ @0 G/ l0 X% `同样主队让平半就分别是
7 Q( H9 J2 n# u" M# rO(h)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(h)8 L% e: \3 n! h( z' u! X
O(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(a)): e6 d+ ?: r5 G
五、一球、两球等整数盘(这里先暂时说主队让1球的情况,0:1,Handicaps,其它可以类推的)
4 a6 n( Y6 e) k9 Y9 u  }可以采用类似公式,在(一)中我们分别用A(d)、A(h)、A(a)描述平局、主胜、客胜事件的发生。现在改用另外的符号代替,如B(d)、B(h)、B(a),同时除了平、胜、负概率P(i)(i=d,h,a)外,还需要引入一个一个概率值P(hX)来代表主队赢一球(X=1)、二球(X=2)...的概率,下面来进行演算. J% J( f4 l2 [9 a; |, j/ R7 ?
B(d) = {W(ij)|i=j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}5 k4 O- L& v! l' B
B(h) = {W(ij)|i>j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}# @/ c2 G2 M' V1 x: p
B(a) = {W(ij)|i i,j分别表示主客队的进球数,k代表让球数4 B' \: j2 C9 h
接着,假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:* `8 b) M, |2 W$ ]
{b(h)*O(h) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生
5 }) v. {) I( P. IR(1)={b(h)-O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的B(h)结果发生; c: U6 k' a$ P6 f* G% G# b
{0 , 即上面所述的B(a)结果发生
3 K7 R% M$ u. u. m以及4 E4 y) f0 C; B% T9 u
{b(a) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生( h$ ^: d+ D+ k$ y9 d8 B. X+ |
R(2)={0, 即上面所述的B(h)结果发生! P) }' e2 ^8 ?
{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的B(a)结果发生
8 z  {% G* J/ t; q4 U$ y9 w投注主客的期望回报总数分别为5 L* H2 A3 A$ @; T) C) @( q) O
E[R(1)]=P(h)*b(h)*O(h)+P(h1)*(b(h)-O(h)*b(h))=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]
6 R- i  j; K& ?# |E[R(2)]=P(h1)*b(a)+(1-P(h))*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a)); \8 b3 T/ r8 I9 ]4 S# o, l
假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等% @- D6 d- X5 |9 E0 w. R! s
E[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]=b(h)
, B* i8 x4 i+ X; ~; \P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)=18 i3 j0 r& o' K
O(h)*(P(h)-P(h1))=1-P(h1)
- w) _* I5 S$ J7 [. f* ^O(h)=(1-P(h1))/(P(h)-P(h1))0 r0 P5 `8 d: w8 i( n6 J
E[R(2)]=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))=b(a)
4 B7 o# ~3 K% a9 pP(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a)=1
  q3 Z% ?  R2 rO(a)*(1-P(h))=1-P(h1)# q# S/ h% Y* l/ _5 C
O(a)=(1-P(h1))/(1-P(h))" z% P5 e- z/ N+ u) W9 Q; n) T6 Y/ I
以上(五)部分是让一球的情况,让两球以上整数盘和反过来受让整数盘是可以同样演算的。0 C0 q( n) K! a1 r9 E" p% b
简单小结一球或整数盘,其实理论的演算过程不难,但是如何准确计算赢整数球的概率(P(hi)就是其中的难点,这已经涉及到如何用相对动态实力差或球差来计算各种赢球概率(是指赢1、2、3...球的概率,也可以说是赢球比分概率)的问题,使用自己数据模型里的数据来计算。
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2#
好象不是很明白
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在极端情况下,可以认为平手盘亚洲赔率
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太复杂,有没有简单易懂的??
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
好复杂啊!!!!!
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6#
谁看的懂啊。就是你们这些家伙把简单的事复杂化
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7#
谢谢楼主的分享
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8#
徐曹操曹操双方的首发参赛
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9#
新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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10#
楼主的经验不错啊
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这个·好复杂的
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12#
这个看起来真有点复杂。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake:
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