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[lastpost] => 2650672 比特币价格预测：BTC突破$65,000阻力位 牛市重回控制？（转） 1716347476 爱美的女人
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当前离线
经验:
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总在线: 12073 小时
本月在线: 30 小时
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首先回顾下本周发生的事情：熊：美国ZF开始将其查获的暗网电商丝绸之路的
/ N7 t4 u# i8 Q8 v! Q3 `4 G5 z- n* h! A& i8 Y6 {9 j* H
总计30174枚比特币转向了交易所，相关人士认为这是抛售的前兆，因此带来了恐慌，
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1 l* D( ?5 t% n5 p1 h方舟基金，灰度基金都抛售了比特币。这导致币比特币一度跌到64500附近。
1 I+ m* s% U! B8 a! a3 v4 _0 Q# V1 J+ h: P% O
l8 f3 k0 ~* Z8 e2 q9 Z Q$ X
$ F8 K- P7 }: \) P4 @: t, J1 A- S 牛：（1）Fidelity，Blackrock都在持续增持比特币，其中blackroak增持3100枚，7 V4 t. j N6 k
j% A0 ~1 K5 E w/ H. l8 uFidelity增持1100枚（2）神秘地址以100枚为单位疯狂购入比特币，越跌越买，四天
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内抄底2170枚。个人猜测可能是某国ZF在买入，如果未来的有一天，某个国家ZF
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宣布其持续买入比特币，可能就是准备抛售，见大顶的时候（3）usdt4天内增发30亿
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枚，在过去的日子，以周为单位，USDT增发都会带来币价大涨聊完了新闻，我们回到
# d+ t; S" [6 ~: z8 I; y5 Z# } n( o7 y. H1 h
k线。首先看比特币：从日线上看，比特币在两个红色矩形之间（60000，72000）形成* o1 }6 ]4 x0 Y5 I$ r
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震荡，振幅逐步收窄，很快就要选择出方向。考虑HSEMA9逐步逼近蓝色EMA18，死
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叉一旦形成，上涨趋势会被破环，比特币将测试下方红色矩形6万的位置。因此，为了
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避免死叉的形成，比特币需要快速反弹。反弹只有突破绿色区间71300的位置才可以确; y! O" \) o, Q' j/ y
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定一个更高的高点，从而走出下降趋势。如果无法站稳71300，再次测试60000只是时( k" s. b8 }: t" a. L6 v
# t5 e9 S8 Y% P- s1 g0 ?! q间问题。如果6万不保，下方HS矩形是大支撑，也就是53000~50000的区间。个人认) d" @6 d$ G: M
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为这是最坏的情况，不认可一些人认为去3万。6 U, ]6 W) q& X7 P) I' T% Q b1 \
3 o, _3 R( p% h6 ~& z从4小时来看基本和日线一致，无需赘述。不过4小时的EMA200形成了一个比较强的支撑
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6 W+ s% b& X/ o" R，已经测试4次进行了反弹。本人也多次在EMA200做多吃到了短线涨幅。但考虑一个支撑6 ^, K; s! T6 Y3 @
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位被多次测试，那么其跌破的概率就越来越多。因此，如果比特币不能快速收复73100，* I# }2 H" A8 M9 L$ e1 p
# m1 Q$ {* c G+ E7 C3 h
EMA200跌破只是时间问题，下一步就看60000的表现。
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; O \; b9 F: [( d3 \# j! d& v考虑美股连涨5个月有短期见顶的信号，结合美国可能抛售的3万枚比特币。本人近期看空，
. n. j, y! [5 }7 H/ ]6 P& m7 A+ `3 l' I% l7 L: s* B, u) |
认为比特币至少会去次6万。# ]* R. P3 t; z6 V
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* }7 b8 Q$ q9 b7 C4 J' c抛售量这个也是很多的了吧 |
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当前离线
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