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[lastpost] => 2651404 $CREAM与$Bobaoppa暴涨！麻吉大哥：我已成神。 1716279323 天策-七玥
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首先回顾下本周发生的事情：熊：美国ZF开始将其查获的暗网电商丝绸之路的
8 f; @1 S, }& v9 ]7 ?% U1 t# S
1 g4 d3 U! M" A( I: S0 A( @* t总计30174枚比特币转向了交易所，相关人士认为这是抛售的前兆，因此带来了恐慌，
: C# s4 X5 z/ _7 [' F( u. ~/ s( _5 i1 b5 q% g9 z) O$ X
方舟基金，灰度基金都抛售了比特币。这导致币比特币一度跌到64500附近。
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# }, ~3 J: L$ J4 T( N0 Q& Z. B& b7 O, J4 ?% k- ~$ ]: u
牛：（1）Fidelity，Blackrock都在持续增持比特币，其中blackroak增持3100枚，
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Fidelity增持1100枚（2）神秘地址以100枚为单位疯狂购入比特币，越跌越买，四天
: f: z7 y F( H
7 q' E$ [' ~% Q1 ~- A内抄底2170枚。个人猜测可能是某国ZF在买入，如果未来的有一天，某个国家ZF. [* t# d6 [: A% ]( H0 n
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宣布其持续买入比特币，可能就是准备抛售，见大顶的时候（3）usdt4天内增发30亿/ _1 r6 ?4 g! I* F$ O( x6 H
: u+ q- _! e0 n1 k+ \& f4 P枚，在过去的日子，以周为单位，USDT增发都会带来币价大涨聊完了新闻，我们回到
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k线。首先看比特币：从日线上看，比特币在两个红色矩形之间（60000，72000）形成 Z8 u% Y) r9 t3 W% }
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震荡，振幅逐步收窄，很快就要选择出方向。考虑HSEMA9逐步逼近蓝色EMA18，死: A- c5 _: C0 p+ G
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叉一旦形成，上涨趋势会被破环，比特币将测试下方红色矩形6万的位置。因此，为了8 w3 z- _9 @0 n0 _
: G# h+ m: u1 p避免死叉的形成，比特币需要快速反弹。反弹只有突破绿色区间71300的位置才可以确+ [- R9 r4 `% X# u4 l
% ^' u, l0 F) G4 H5 x定一个更高的高点，从而走出下降趋势。如果无法站稳71300，再次测试60000只是时; T2 [. i m6 f7 A
) i: \4 m, T6 a0 X ]. i3 `% g3 ]5 g间问题。如果6万不保，下方HS矩形是大支撑，也就是53000~50000的区间。个人认, L6 d: ~# Z! P
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为这是最坏的情况，不认可一些人认为去3万。
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$ ]% x$ O8 Q& V j& w( m/ X- M从4小时来看基本和日线一致，无需赘述。不过4小时的EMA200形成了一个比较强的支撑" k. O1 d8 c3 W) L: I0 g1 @
; F* E1 G p3 y，已经测试4次进行了反弹。本人也多次在EMA200做多吃到了短线涨幅。但考虑一个支撑
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位被多次测试，那么其跌破的概率就越来越多。因此，如果比特币不能快速收复73100，
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EMA200跌破只是时间问题，下一步就看60000的表现。5 M5 }$ ~+ z3 ]( R& n) L( s
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考虑美股连涨5个月有短期见顶的信号，结合美国可能抛售的3万枚比特币。本人近期看空，0 D E& s- b2 P
3 Q3 {# v% M3 _. i5 N: ~4 R! X认为比特币至少会去次6万。3 M4 I5 f6 _8 n/ L
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( S: u3 \+ R0 c
抛售量这个也是很多的了吧 |
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